Notre Dame Football: ESPN Model Projects Showdown vs. Louisville

Notre Dame drops two spots in ESPN FPI rankings after 28-3 win over Miami (Ohio)

Sep 21, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Beaux Collins (5) catches a pass for a touchdown in the second quarter against the Miami Redhawks at Notre Dame Stadium. / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Notre Dame football moved to 3-1 on the 2024 season after a 28-3 win over Miami (Ohio) on Saturday. The final score was fine but the first 24 minutes or so of Saturday's action saw Notre Dame either tied or trailing the RedHawks.

Notre Dame won on the scoreboard which is most important but wasn't overly impressive for a large chunk of the way. As a result, the computer models that track just about every statistic and detail walked away less impressed with the Fighting Irish.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) reworked its numbers following college football's Week 4 and Notre Dame saw its playoff chances take a hit despite recording a victory.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville: ESPN FPI Projection

𝙂𝙖𝙢𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠

🆚 Louisville
📍 South Bend, Indiana
📅 Saturday, Sept. 28
🕞 3:30 PM ET
📺 Peacock#GoIrish☘️ | @DICKS pic.twitter.com/I95U5f7IiB

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 23, 2024

Notre Dame welcomes Louisville this Saturday for what has become the biggest home game of the regular season. Louisville figured to be a tough game before the season started but the Cardinals exceeding expectations and Notre Dame having already lost to Northern Illinois makes this especially big for the Fighting Irish.

What does ESPN's FPI see happening between Notre Dame and Louisville, who it ranks ninth and 11th nationally after four weeks of the regular season?

ESPN FPI Projection: Notre Dame 67.7% chance of victory

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame's Remainder of Season

Sep 21, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Junior Tuihalamaka (44) celebrates after an interception in the first quarter against the Miami Redhawks at Notre Dame Stadium. / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Here are Notre Dame's chances at winning each of the remaining eight games according to ESPN FPI along with what those chances were a week ago, pre-Miami. As you'll see, Notre Dame's chances of bouncing back and still making the College Football Playoff are very much alive, but down a bit from a week ago despite taking a week off the schedule.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville: 67.7% (-2.9)
Notre Dame vs. Stanford: 95.2% (-0.6)
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech: 82.3% (+0.5)
Notre Dame vs. Navy: 94.7% (-2.1)
Notre Dame vs. Florida State: 91.2% (+0.9)
Notre Dame vs. Virginia: 92.5% (-2.3)
Notre Dame vs. Army: 91.6% (-1.2)
Notre Dame at USC: 53.1% (+2.6)

Notre Dame Season Projections from ESPN FPI:

To Win-Out This Regular Season: 21.9% (down 1.0% from Sept. 16)

Make College Football Playoff: 35.9% down 2.3%)*

Make National Championship Game: 5.5% (up 3.5%)

Win National Championship: 4.4% (down 1.1%)

*-Notre Dame's 35.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff are the 11th best of any team nationally according to ESPN FPI.

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