Ian Book To Return: What It Means For Notre Dame

Breaking down what the return of quarterback Ian Book means for Notre Dame

Photo by Matt Cashore, USA Today

Notre Dame senior quarterback Ian Book announced last night that he would return for a fifth and final season for the Irish.

While not overly surprising, the news is still important for Notre Dame. Whether you believe Book is capable of leading Notre Dame to a title or not, his return is impactful in many ways. So what exactly does the return of Book mean for Notre Dame, and what must Book do in order to silence his critics - of which I am one - and get the Irish over the hump?

CONTINUITY AND EXPERIENCE

Book has 23 career starts, so his return means the Irish will have continuity at the quarterback position. Whether that’s good or bad can certainly be debated, but Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly has always valued experience, which is why Book is assured of continuing as the Irish quarterback.

That also means his return means another offseason without any type of quarterback competition. Book is the starter, Phil Jurkovec and Brendon Clark will be backups, and if next season goes like this season, it means another season of very little playing time for anyone other than the starting quarterback.

While Book is limited in some areas, his return should give the next offensive coordinator - which is likely to be current quarterbacks coach Tommy Rees - a player capable of providing leadership to the offense. Leadership isn’t just about emotional leadership and providing maturity, it also means schematic leadership. 

Being a third-year starter should mean Book has an incredibly firm grasp of the offense. This should help with what will likely be a talented, deep, but young group of skill players next season.

IMPROVEMENT NEEDED

Kelly and other supporters of Book will point to his record as a starter (20-3) and his numbers for reasons why he is entrenched in the starting role. Book passed for 3,034 yards and 34 touchdowns this season while throwing just six interceptions. He added another 546 yards on the ground and four more scores.

On paper that looks really good, but if Book is going to be a quarterback that can take Notre Dame to the next level he will need to make dramatic improvements to his game.

Kelly has spent a lot of time talking about his team’s naysayers, and no player has more naysayers than Book, and for good reason. 

Kelly has also said that a good journalist should rely on data, and not emotion. I agree, and that is where my constant criticism of Book has come from. The data tells a very, very clear story. Book put up good numbers this season, but he feasted on inferior competition.

Here's the data:

Here’s some context to those numbers. Book’s passer rating against Power 5 opponents would rank him 81st in the country. If the weather causes you to justify Book’s abysmal performance against Michigan, his quarterback rating of 131.32 with the Michigan game removed would rank him 69th in the country.

The same is true of his yards per attempt numbers. The 5.9 yards per attempt against Power 5 opponents and Top 50 defenses is outside the Top 100, and his 6.6 yards per attempt with Michigan removed would rank 92nd (Power 5) and 97th (Top 50).

I don’t care what kind of season-long numbers Book puts up. A Notre Dame quarterback, and the Notre Dame head coach, should not be judged for how they perform against inferior opponents, they should be judged for how they perform against the top teams on the schedule. Book’s numbers in those games are that of an average to below average quarterback.

I do not believe Book is an average or below average quarterback from a talent standpoint, but those are the numbers, and until that changes there should be continued criticism of both Book and Kelly, at least you’ll find it here. Book will get his chances next season when the Irish face teams like Clemson, Wisconsin, USC and others. Notre Dame will need him to take his game to a much, much higher level against those squads.

So what does that improvement look like? Where can Book improve and become a player that Notre Dame wins because of, and not a quarterback whose teammates must overcome in order to achieve victory against the top teams they play.

Here are areas where Book must improve:

1. Pocket Presence / Poise — Book absolutely must show better poise and pocket awareness, especially against better defenses. This manifests in many ways.

One is Book has to do a better job of not allowing the pass rush to influence his feet or eyes. Far too often this season we saw Book working his feet way too fast and working his progressions way too fast against better opponents, which caused him to either rush throws, get out of the pocket too quickly or be off target. He shows a smooth, calm pocket presence against inferior opponents, but when the stakes were highest his footwork and body language looked completely different.

As a quarterback, when your feet get sped up your reads get sped up, when your reads get sped up you are going to either make more mistakes or be unable to get the ball out with good timing. That has haunted Book against better defenses. He gets in such a hurry that when receivers are about to come open, or do come open, he’s either moved past that read or he’s so rushed that he’s unwilling to just let the ball go.

Book doesn’t show this against bad defenses, and it’s why he looks so good in those games. His feet are calm, the timing of his drops tends to be better and he goes through his progressions much cleaner. If he can play as calm and poised against the best opponents as he does against inferior opponents he’ll have a chance to be a far more effective player.

Book's lack of poise in the pocket causes him to create problems from a pressure standpoint that otherwise would not be there. According to Pro Football Focus, 11 of the 15 sacks of Book this season were considered the fault of the quarterback and not the line. This is yet another example of a quarterback who doesn't show the poise in the pocket needed to play elite football.

The good news is this is something that can be improved upon.

2. Timing Must Improve — Book must make better decisions as a quarterback, and a big part of that is playing with better timing. Far too often, even when he’s on, Book throws too late. He doesn’t anticipate receivers coming open very well, often waiting for players to be open before he throws the football.

This is why so many of his throws look rushed, especially on intermediate and deeper throws that aren’t part of his first read. When Book’s first read is open he’ll throw with adequate to good timing, but anytime he throws further down the field on a second or third read he’ll rush the throw, sapping him of power and accuracy. You’ll also see Book aim these throws more instead of snapping it off.

This is a big reason why Book is so much better against inferior opponents. When the defense isn’t very good the reality is the number one and two reads are open more frequently. That’s why Book looks so calm and poised in those games. But against better opponents he has to go to his second or third option more frequently, and that’s when Book gets uncomfortable.

If his anticipation skills can improve and he starts throwing receivers open instead of waiting on them to come open you’ll see him make a lot more winning plays, even against the best defenses he faces.

3. Take More Chances — I don’t know if its because of the timing issues above, a lack confidence in himself (in big games) or if its because he’s so incredibly afraid to make a mistake, but Book does not show the willingness to make the “tough throws” as quarterbacks that lead other teams that are competing for a national championship. This limits the effectiveness of the offense by taking away opportunities for his teammates to make more plays.

The reality is windows are going to be much, much smaller against better defenses. If you watched the Fiesta Bowl matchup between Ohio State and Clemson, you saw both quarterbacks throwing more one-on-one balls outside than we see from Book. Both quarterbacks were willing to throw over the middle on intermediate and deep routes than we see from Book against better defenses. Both quarterbacks were willing to allow their receivers to make more plays than Book allows his receivers to make.

If Book was willing to take more chances he might turn it over a time or two more, but the trade off will be he makes A LOT more plays. Book will have a very talented group of pass catchers next season, and he must show supreme confidence in them and be willing to allow them to make more plays on the football.

Book has shown he’s able to do this at times. During the final drive of the opening half against Georgia he took more chances, and his pass catchers made plays. When Notre Dame fell behind Georgia 23-10 in the fourth quarter we again saw Book make “tougher” throws, and his pass catchers rewarded him. If Book can become that kind of player all the time, and not just when he has to have that mentality (late in the half, when the team is down) he could have a monster season in 2020.

Understand what I’m talking about here. I’m not saying he needs to throw into double coverage or take more risks. There’s a difference between playing reckless and being willing to take more chances.

All of these points build on each other. Book must improve his poise and footwork in the pocket against better defenses, which should lead to him throwing with better timing, which then allows him to take more chances. You can’t take chances when you aren’t anticipating players coming open because by the time the ball comes out the windows are closed. That’s how turnovers happen.

4. Continued Downfield Improvement — Book showed much better success throwing the ball downfield this season, and the numbers show just that.

Look at the data:

What Book showed is that he’s clearly physically capable of making those throws. I don’t think fans appreciate how well Book throws the deep ball from a physical standpoint, at least when he does it right. He gets good zip on intermediate and deeper throws between 15-25 yards, and he can get the ball downfield effectively.

If you've been to a Notre Dame practice you would see Book shredding the defense with perfectly placed back shoulder throws, but we rarely see that in games. That's something we need to see more of moving forward.

I remember watching Book and Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm going through pre-game, and watching both play live, and it was clear to me that it was Book who threw with more velocity and power. The difference between the two quarterbacks in that game were mental, mechanical and were about confidence, as Fromm showed a willingness and ability to make the tough throws while Book did not. 

Book’s issues aren’t physical, they are mental. I’m a believer that if you can do something once it means you are capable of doing it more often. Book showed me multiple times this season he has the physical talent to make big plays and make the tough throws, but far too often there is an unwillingness to do it against the better opponents.

Just look at this throw:

This is a big-time toss, but it’s a throw he’s unwilling to make in big moments. In the past I pointed out that Book had a chance to hit a post route for a big play early in the game against Clemson, and if he makes that throw it would have put Notre Dame up 7-0 in that game. This is the exact route that Book was unwilling to make against Clemson, against Michigan and in many other big moments. 

He’s capable of making it, now he just has to be willing to play with the same poise, confidence and timing against better teams that he showed against an inferior defense like Navy.

The numbers back up my evaluation. Book’s overall improvements with the deep ball were because of his success against Navy, New Mexico and Bowling Green.

Book completed just 20 of 43 deep balls against Power 5 opponents, throwing for 602 yards and two touchdowns while being picked off three times. Against Top 50 defenses he went 14-33 for 406 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions.

Against Navy, New Mexico and Bowling Green, Book went 13-20 for 392 yards on deep throws, with eight touchdowns and no interceptions.

You cannot have that kind of disparity if you’re going to be a championship quarterback. That kind of play gets you to 10-2, it doesn't get you into the playoff.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

Book coming back isn’t necessarily a good thing, and it also it’s automatically a bad thing. It all depends on what kind of growth he makes as a player this offseason.

If the return of Book means Notre Dame fans can expect the same caliber quarterback play in 2020 that we saw in 2018 and 2019, it means the numbers will be nice, he’ll remain the starter, he'll climb up the all-time lists and Notre Dame will be ensured of being almost good enough. Almost good enough because the play from the quarterback position won’t be good enough in the bigger games.

Want more data to back up my point? Consider that Ian Book is currently 5-3 against opponents that finished the season ranked in the Top 25, and just 1-3 against opponents that finished in the Top 15. Book is 0-2 against Top 10 teams. That includes 2019 opponents, and with USC losing to Iowa in the Holiday Bowl the Trojans will likely be out of the Top 25. If Navy (Kansas State) and Virginia (Florida) lose their bowl games his record will drop to 2-3 against Top 25 foes.

That's the same record Brandon Wimbush had against Top 25 opponents, but Wimbush had three wins over Top 15 opponents, and he got benched.

That is the data that matters. Those are the games that Book should be judged on, those are the games Kelly should be judged on. Those are the games that are keeping Notre Dame from taking the next step as a program.

If Book can become a more consistent quarterback he has the physical tools, and the weapons around him, to start putting up big numbers against everyone they play. The talent is there, of that I have no doubt. But will that be the version of Book we see in 2020? With his announcement that he’s coming back, we’ll certainly find out.

Follow me on Twitter: @CoachD178
Visit our Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/IrishMaven/