Inside The Numbers: Notre Dame Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense

A look at how the Notre Dame offense stacks up against the Bowling Green defense on paper

Matt Cashore, USA TODAY Sports

The 9th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1) host the Bowling Green Falcons (1-3) on Saturday, the first time the two teams have squared off.

We begin our week long breakdown of the matchup by looking at how the Notre Dame offense stacks up against the Falcon defense on paper.

Notre Dame Scoring Offense vs. Bowling Green Scoring Defense

Advantage: Notre Dame

The Irish offense was expected to carry the team early in the season while the defense got up to speed. In recent weeks the opposite has been true, with the offense proving itself to be quite erratic outside of a 66-point outburst against a porous New Mexico defense.

Notre Dame has failed to top 400 yards in each of its last two games, although it did top 5.0 yards per play in each game.

There are several reasons for the struggles of the offense, but it has been a group that has mostly shot itself in the foot. No further evidence is needed than by the fact Notre Dame ranks 114th in the nation in third-down offense and 111th in penalties.

Despite its struggles, Notre Dame ranks in the Top 25 nationally in scoring offense and yards per play. Its dominance in the red zone has played a major factor. Notre Dame has punched in 12 of its 14 red zone trips and come away with field goals on the other two. The issue is that Notre Dame ranks just 96th in red zone trips.

While Notre Dame hasn’t lived up to the standard that many expected, it’s still a solid offense that has shown itself capable of big plays. The Irish are also getting healthier, with tight end Cole Kmet and wide receiver Michael Young both returning to the lineup in the last two games.

Bowling Green, on the other hand, has been abysmal on defense this season, ranking between 100th to 122nd nationally in scoring defense, total defense, yards allowed per play, red zone defense, red zone touchdown defense and third-down defense.

Those numbers don’t do justice to how bad Bowling Green has been. The Falcons held FCS opponent Morgan State to three points and just 70 yards of offense in the season opener. Since then, against three FBS opponents, Bowling Green has given up 49.7 points per game, 574.7 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play. The first two stats would rank the Falcons dead last in the nation and the third would be second to last.

This is a total mismatch in terms of talent, scheme and coaching. Notre Dame needs to come out and show that immediately on Saturday afternoon.

Notre Dame Rush Offense vs. Bowling Green Rush Defense

Advantage: Notre Dame

If there was ever a game for the Notre Dame ground attack to get healthy, this would be it. Notre Dame enters this contest ranked 75th nationally in rushing yards per game and just 50th nationally with a 4.7 yards per carry average.

Notre Dame has topped the 200-yard mark just once this season, marking the first time since 2014 that the Irish offense failed to get over 200 yards in a game more than once in the first four games of the season.

The Irish racked up 178 yards and 5.1 yards this past weekend against a Virginia defense that held its first four opponents to 95 rush yards or less and 3.3 yards per attempt or less. Offensive coordinator Chip Long needs to figure out a way to get his ground game on track, and this matchup presents him with an opportunity to build some confidence in the unit.

Senior running back Tony Jones Jr. has topped 100 yards in four of the last five games where he was given at least 10 rush attempts. That includes this season, when he rushed for 110 yards on 15 carries (7.3 YPC) against Louisville and 131 yards on 18 attempts (7.3 YPC) against Virginia.

This is a game that would be ideal to get more action for sophomore C'Bo Flemister, sophomore Jahmir Smith and freshman Kyren Williams.

Bowling Green defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder had an abysmal run defense at Auburn in 2012 (197.6 yards per game), had the worst three-year stretch of rush defense in Notre Dame history (2014-16) and his 2018 Louisville defense ranked 127th in the country in rush defense.

The Falcons held Morgan State to 46 yards on the ground and 1.5 yards per carry. In the three games since, Bowling Green has allowed Kansas State, Louisiana Tech and Kent State to rush for 279.0 yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry. Both Kansas State and Kent State topped 300 yards against the Falcons.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Bowling Green Pass Defense

Advantage: Notre Dame

The return of its starting quarterback, a talented - albeit young - group of pass catchers and four starting offensive linemen provided optimism that Notre Dame would have an impactful pass attack in 2019. Quarterback Ian Book averaged 290.6 passing yards per game in his nine starts last season, and was over 300 yards in the regular season.

We have not seen that through the first four games, at least not against anyone other than New Mexico, who ranks dead last in pass defense this season. Book averaged just 211 yards per game, 6.7 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of just 125.34 in the other three games. Book also has just a 3:2 touchdown to interception ratio in those games.

Bowling Green is on the level of New Mexico when it comes to pass defense, so we likely won’t learn much from Book or the Irish pass game this week. What would be wise, however, is to use this game as an opportunity to get some of the younger weapons more involved. 

That would include sophomore tight end Tommy Tremble and sophomore wideout Joe Wilkins Jr., but the player that really needs to get a chance to make an impact this weekend is sophomore Braden Lenzy.

Lenzy has elite speed, and his big-play skills are something the offense currently lacks. Notre Dame’s coaches must find a way to get him involved in the offense as long as he can stay healthy. He’s cleared for this game, and it needs to be an opportunity for Long to see what he can do.

The Falcons looked good statistically after two games, holding its opponents to just 212 combined yards, but in the last two games opposing offenses have passed for 699 yards and seven touchdowns while picking off just one of 68 pass attempts.

Bowling Green has been effective getting after the quarterback, ranking 20th nationally in sacks per game through four contests. 

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