Stacking Up: The Notre Dame Offense Must Dominate The Florida State Defense
Notre Dame must make a big jump on offense this season if the Irish are going to compete for a championship. This will be the first chance for offensive coordinator Tommy Rees to show off his unit.
NOTRE DAME RUSH OFFENSE vs. FSU RUSH DEFENSE
Advantage: Notre Dame
Based on last year's stats - which is all we can use for a game this early - this is a complete mismatch. Notre Dame dominated the Seminoles on the ground last season to the tune of 353 yards. Kyren Williams racked up 185 yards while Chris Tyree added another 103 yards.
The matchup this year will have a different look, at least in the trenches. Notre Dame has four new starters along the offensive line and Florida State must replace three starters up front from a unit that struggled last season. Whichever revamped unit performs best will have the edge in this game, and right now I give the Irish the advantage.
Florida State got a boost from a pair of South Carolina transfers, safety Jammie Robinson and defensive end Keir Thomas. Both are quality run defenders at positions where the Seminoles struggled against the run a season ago. If Florida State is going to improve its run defense it will need its linebackers to play at a much, much better level than they did a season ago.
Where Notre Dame has the huge advantage is with its backs against the FSU front seven. Williams and Tyree made the Seminoles look silly last season, both with their ability to make defenders miss and to rip off big runs. As long as the offensive line holds up I expect the ground game to thrive and for Williams and Tyree to put up big numbers once again.
NOTRE DAME PASS OFFENSE vs. FSU PASS DEFENSE
Advantage: Notre Dame
Notre Dame didn't throw a lot against Florida State last season, but when they did the Irish found great success. Florida State struggled to slow down opposing pass offenses last season, allowing quarterbacks to complete 66.3% of their throws.
Florida State also lost its two best defensive backs, including standout corner Asante Samuel Jr., a second round pick of the Los Angeles Chargers. FSU also lost safety Hamsah Nasirildeen, a sixth round pick of the New York Jets.
Florida State's secondary will have a completely different look than the one we saw last season. A pair of redshirt freshmen - Travis Jay and Jarvis Brownlee Jr. - are taking over at cornerback. They are both athletic defenders and Jay (6-2) brings excellent size.
Of course, those redshirt freshmen corners actually played a lot last season and they are only redshirts due to the Covid rules from last season. Notre Dame receivers Kevin Austin Jr. and Braden Lenzy will be tested by the athletic Seminole defensive backs, and if they perform well it will be a great sign for the future.
Where Florida State struggled most last season was with their linebackers and safeties in coverage. While Robinson improves the run defense he allowed opponents to complete 75% of their throws against him last season (PFF). Notre Dame tight ends and running backs should have a field day against the Florida State linebackers and safeties. Look for Williams and Michael Mayer to have big days in the pass game.
NOTRE DAME SCORING OFFENSE vs. FSU SCORING DEFENSE
Advantage: Notre Dame
Notre Dame is expected to be better on offense this season than it was a year ago, at least it needs to be. This will be test number one. Florida State isn't the talented team it used to be, but they will be older and a bit more athletic and talented on the second and third levels than they were a season go, so this will be a good test for Notre Dame.
If Notre Dame is the offense we think it can be, and hope it can be, the unit should perform well against a Florida State defense that was absolutely terrible last season. Yes, I expect the Seminoles to be better this season, but how much better remains to be seen. Florida State has a very, very long way to go to be good, much less the kind of unit that should shut down Notre Dame.
Notre Dame will excellent on third-down last season and FSU struggled on third-down, which will be a very important matchup in this game. Both were bad in the red zone, and if Notre Dame is going to improve in the red zone this is a great team to start strong against.
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