The Michael Mayer Overthink Has Reached Epic Proportions

Former Notre Dame star tight end Michael Mayer is the most overthought prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft

The story of Notre Dame legend Michael Mayer was supposed to write itself. A former five-star recruit heads four and a half hours Northwest to Notre Dame, a school that has a tremendous claim as the best producer of tight ends historically of any program in the country.

He then proceeds to break every single season and career record at the position, a position that includes former stars like Dave Casper, Ken MacAfee, Mark Bavaro, Irv Smith, Derek Brown, Tyler Eifert, John Carlson, Anthony Fasano and Kyle Rudolph. To put the cherry on top, he does it in only three seasons before declaring early for the 2023 NFL Draft.

Only thing left for Mayer to do is to be selected as the first tight end off the board and sail off to a long and successful NFL career. That seems like a fitting end to the story.

Instead, Michael Mayer continues to be arguably the most overthought prospect in the 2023 draft class.

Throughout this draft process, we have now seen four different tight ends mocked as the first tight end off the board, including Mayer, Dalton Kincaid (Utah), Darnell Washington (Georgia) and even Luke Musgrave (Oregon State). Now mock drafts aren’t the gospel and should be taken with a grain of salt, but several of these instances have come from some mainstream NFL Draft analysts who do have deep connections in the league. While click bait does exist, it’s reasonable to believe that these opinions are coming from somewhere.

Even while it seems incredibly outlandish, at least the trio of Kincaid, Washington and Musgrave are talented. It’s misguided but at least there’s a conversation to be had.

That conversation was completely taken to another level when NBC Sports analyst Chris Simms posted his tight end rankings on Wednesday.

He had Kincaid at one - not a huge surprise. There is a lot to like about Kincaid. The Utah standout began his career as an All American performer for FCS San Diego before making the move to the Utes among the Covid uncertainty. Kincaid has developed into a premier performer for Utah this past season, including hauling in 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns. That touchdown total was equaled during the 2021 season as well.

The rest of the list, however, quickly turned into a bit of a circus.

Today’s podcast focused on the TE Draft prospects. This group is loaded pic.twitter.com/2FMF46TR6H

— Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) April 5, 2023

Mayer wasn’t in the second spot, which you would expect to be the case for most people that do not have him as their top ranked guy. Instead Sims pegged him as the third ranked tight end, which seems a bit ridiculous to begin with, but there was a new player in the second spot that hasn’t had much conversation.

It was Sam LaPorta, who is a very solid prospect with an NFL future. He was the lone bright spot of a historically poor Iowa offense in 2022, hauling in 58 receptions for 657 yards and one touchdown. A rock solid player, there is no shame having him on a top five list. Unfortunately Sims also broke his list up into tiers, with LaPorta in the second tier and Mayer in the third. That’s where things got really chaotic. The LaPorta conversation is pretty ridiculous by itself, but at least you can point to production and the fact that he went to Iowa, another one of the great producers of tight ends.

The worst part of the list by far is Mayer’s company in that third tier. One was Washington, who is again understandable. He is incredibly talented, boasting some clear athletic traits in his 6-7 and 264-pound frame.

Again, that is a discussion worth having. The upside is clearly there for Washington although his career production (45 receptions, 774 yards, three touchdowns) would be a below average season for Mayer.

No, it was the other inclusion in that third tier that really took the list from questionable to ridiculous quickly. Just one spot below Mayer was Cincinnati tight end Josh Whyle. While Whyle was a sound contributor for Cincinnati over his four year career, putting him in that type of company is pretty outrageous.

The finest season that Whyle put together was actually during his sophomore season in 2020 where he hauled in 28 receptions for 353 yards and six touchdowns. That reception and receiving yardage total would have been good enough for the fourth best season in Mayer’s career, which means he would have had to play an extra season and be limited in game action.

A reminder that Whyle also did that playing in the AAC conference, which means he also isn’t playing nearly as difficult of a schedule that Mayer was seeing on a week to week basis. From an athleticism perspective, Whyle and Mayer also tested very similarly. Whyle isn’t even a substantially better athlete where you could at least bring in the upside conversation. There really is no basis for that opinion with the production, athletic traits or film.

This latest installment from Simms isn’t the first time we have seen Mayer disrespect this off-season. It is, however, the most recent and arguably most egregious. The overthink of a player who is about as sure a thing as you will find in the NFL Draft world has been a strange occurrence.

Some will point to athleticism, but when Mayer tested both at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine and the Notre Dame Pro Day, the results told a very different story.

Michael Mayer is a TE prospect in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 7.62 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 261 out of 1091 TE from 1987 to 2023.

Correction for Mayer, hand size and arm were wrong.https://t.co/G8uJ8wK0lK #RAS pic.twitter.com/LtTN4KI2Nc

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 3, 2023

In every testing area, Mayer was above average. His speed, which was one area that people had the most questions, was actually well above average.

Still, evaluators and naysayers continue to poke holes in the former Notre Dame star. Even with athletic testing that is nearly identical to guys such as Jason Witten, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert and TJ Hockenson, there is still this narrative that he is a deficient athlete. Finding evidence to back up that assumption has still not been found.

In the NFL Draft space, too often we overlook the floor of a prospect like it doesn’t matter. For Mayer, it absolutely does. The minute he stepped foot on campus at Notre Dame, he was a strong contributor, setting freshman receiving marks for an Irish tight end. He had the look of an eight year pro very early in his college career, that stuff all matters.

There is no tight end in the 2023 class that has as clear a transition early in their career to become a legitimate difference maker on day one than Mayer, something that Washington doesn’t have.

He also brings the style that should adequately handle the physical demands of the position, consistently working through contact and blocking his tail off. Other prospects, specifically Kincaid and Musgrave, lack that profile.

That well roundedness is what makes Mayer stand out most. You would be hard pressed to find a clear hole in his game. From a route running perspective, ball skills, competitiveness, physicality, he has everything you need to develop into one of the top tight ends in the NFL.

That floor, versatility and overall impact cement him as comfortably the top tight end in a very gifted 2023 class, even if people want to try to avoid it. 

Be sure to check out the Irish Breakdown message board, the Champions Lounge

Irish Breakdown Content

2023 Scholarship Chart
2023 Football Schedule

Notre Dame 2023 Scholarship Offers
Notre Dame 2024 Scholarship Offers

2023 Recruiting Class Grades - Offense
2023 Recruiting Class Grades - Defense

———————

Become a premium Irish Breakdown member, which grants you access to all of our premium content and our premium message board! Click on the link below for more.

BECOME A MEMBER

Be sure to stay locked into Irish Breakdown all the time!

Join the Irish Breakdown community!
Subscribe to the Irish Breakdown YouTube channel
Subscribe to the Irish Breakdown podcast on iTunes
Follow me on Twitter: @RiseNDraft
Like and follow Irish Breakdown on Facebook

Sign up for the FREE Irish Breakdown daily newsletter