Notre Dame vs USC Game Predictions

Irish Breakdown makes predictions for the big matchup between Notre Dame and USC

The 21st-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2) square off against the undefeated and 10th-ranked USC Trojans (6-0) this weekend. Notre Dame is a scuffling team that has lost two of its last three games, but a win over USC would turn the season around in a hurry. USC has also had its fair share of struggles in the last three games, but the Trojans are still in control of their own destiny. 

Where: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, Ind.)
When: Saturday - October 14th
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Network: NBC
Line: Notre Dame -3.0, O/U: 60

Irish Breakdown has broken the game down all week and now it's time to make predictions.

Bryan Driskell, Publisher

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, USC 31

It might seem hyperbolic to say this, but Notre Dame's season is very much at stake this weekend. Yes, that might sound extreme, but it's true. Just two weeks ago the Irish were still a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, but that hope was dashed when the Irish were whipped by Louisville. Now the Irish are in a must-win situation if it wants to keep the season from falling apart.

This game is a unique matchup of two struggling units (Notre Dame's offense vs. USC's defense) and two really good units (Notre Dame's defense vs. USC's offense). Notre Dame's offense has been downright dreadful the last two games, but a case could be made the USC defense has been even worse. Something will have to give, and it needs to be the Notre Dame offense. There's no reason it shouldn't be, as Notre Dame has the skill talent, the offensive line ability and the quarterback to rip up the USC defense. 

Despite its struggles in recent weeks, I expect quarterback Sam Hartman and the Notre dame offense to get back on track. Not doing so would be a very, very bad sign, but I'm predicting they do just that. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame must figure out a way to slow down elite quarterback Caleb Williams. If Al Golden turns the defensive line loose and the pass defense continues its season-long effectiveness they'll be able to make enough stops to get the win.

Ryan Roberts, Recruiting Director

Prediction: USC 35, Notre Dame 31

It’s hard to get the bad taste of the Louisville loss out of your mouth as a fan. There is a lack of confidence with this team, which is really troubling when taking on the reigning Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback. Notre Dame must limit Caleb Williams, and not let the Trojans get the run game going.

On offense, Notre Dame should have some success in this one but they’ll have to outscore a potential Trojan offense. It’s just hard to bet against Williams right now. They are scoring seemingly at will. 

Sean Stires, Staff Writer

Prediction: USC 36, Notre Dame 30

This is a game that Notre Dame definitely can win. The problem is the mess that has become of the offense post-Ohio State. Will Marcus Freeman/Gerad Parker do something other than run the ball 82% of the time when Sam Hartman goes under center against an average of 8.6 defenders in the box in those situations. Will they throw the ball 75% of the time they line up in shotgun? Those are both tendencies they had last week against Louisville. Yes, USC’s defense is bad, but so was last year’s Trojan defense that held the Irish to 90 rushing yards and 3.5 yards per carry. There’s a lot to get right after last week.

The defensive challenge is obviously Caleb Williams, who broke Notre Dame’s back again and again last year by extending plays with his legs. The Irish secondary should be back to full strength after nickel Thomas Harper missed last week’s game. It will be the best defense Williams and Co have faced this season. I do expect the Irish to hold the Trojans to their lowest point total of the season, but they haven’t scored fewer than 42 this year.

Andrew McDonough, IB Contributor

Prediction: USC 33, Notre Dame 24

It breaks my heart to do this, but I can't pick Notre Dame to beat USC based on how this team has responded to the Ohio State loss. Coming into the season, Notre Dame's identity was its offensive line, but in two weeks we've seen this offensive line go from being called "the best offensive line that [OSU DE Jack Sawyer] has ever played against" to its leader and All-American offensive tackle getting bull-rushed to the ground by Louisville defenders. I just haven't seen any evidence that Notre Dame will be able to keep up with the powerful USC offensive attack based on how the offensive line is playing, especially without a bye week to reset. USC hasn't been good on defense overall, but the Trojans lead the nation in tackles for loss with 57, averaging 9.5 TFLs/game, and rank 4th nationally in sacks with 22. If the Irish offensive line doesn't come to play, Notre Dame is going to be consistently behind the sticks, and the Irish have only converted 29% of third downs the past three weeks. That is not a recipe for success.

On the other side of the ball, I do have confidence that the Notre Dame defense will come into this matchup with a chip on its shoulder given the disrespect that Trojan QB Caleb Williams showed the Fighting Irish last season. However, without the offense being able to consistently control the clock and move the ball, it is near impossible to keep Williams and the Trojans down for long. The Trojans are second in the nation in yards/play at 8.45 and explosive plays from scrimmage, with 47 plays of 20+ yards through 6 games.

If Notre Dame is able to win a low-scoring game, that will go down in ND history as an all-time great defensive performance. However, all signs point to the Irish needing to score to win this one, and unfortunately given how these teams are playing and taking a look at the underlying stats, I just don't see it. However - I hope I'm wrong and someone takes a screenshot of this prediction and posts it on the message board after an Irish victory! 

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Irish Breakdown Content

2023 Scholarship Chart
2023 Football Schedule

Notre Dame 2024 Scholarship Offers

2024 Commit Rankings - Offense
2024 Commit Rankings - Defense

2023 Recruiting Class Grades - Offense
2023 Recruiting Class Grades - Defense

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