Key Stats and Trends for Notre Dame vs. Northern Illinois: Nathan's By the Numbers

Notre Dame begins its home schedule for the 2024 season against a talented MAC opponent, Northern Illinois. We’ve got you covered with all the key numbers ahead of Saturday’s contest

Aug 31, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish fans react during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

The Irish are coming off a signature win in Texas this past weekend and will look to maintain their momentum in front of the home crowd later this week.

While Northern Illinois is not a program to be taken lightly, demonstrating that you are truly a top program requires decisively handling games like this. During the Brian Kelly tenure and even occasionally under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame has struggled to close out games against inferior competition.

Here’s hoping for a better performance this weekend as we turn our attention to the first key statistic to watch.

TWENTY FIVE

The average margin of victory versus non-power programs for Notre Dame under Marcus Freeman.


Obviously, this is a small sample size overall, as Freeman is only in his third season as head coach. However, it's a relevant statistic given that Notre Dame is currently a 28 point favorite - just slightly above the 25 point average.

Of course, this doesn't account for the loss against Marshall in 2022 and is bolstered by last year's 56-3 win over FCS opponent Tennessee State.

Conventional wisdom would suggest either staying away from this line or betting on Northern Illinois to cover. As someone who doesn’t bet frequently, my advice is to steer clear.

Notre Dame could win by 27 points and still look impressive. While I don't have a final score prediction yet, something like 41-14 seems quite reasonable.

Vegas stays winning with its betting lines.

EIGHTEEN

The amount of starters Northern Illinois returned this season.

The Huskies finished last season with a 7-6 record, including a narrow two-point bowl win over Arkansas State it their bowl game. However, they are a veteran team, as noted by Marcus Freeman in his weekly press conference, and they return nine starters on both sides of the ball.

Expect a scrappy Northern Illinois squad on Saturday afternoon, one that should show improvement from its 2023 campaign.

Sights & Sounds from Saturday’s WIN!!📺#SOAR | #TheHardWay 🤘🏽🐾 pic.twitter.com/8tIc3CWKnN

— NIU Football (@NIU_Football) September 3, 2024

TWO

The amount of times Riley Leonard has thrown for three plus touchdowns in a game.

This might be a bold prediction, but I found an intriguing stat while examining Leonard's career numbers. The Irish's QB1 has more games with zero passing touchdowns than games with three or more passing touchdowns.

This discrepancy is partly due to his dual-threat ability, as he's also accumulated 19 career rushing touchdowns. My prediction is that Notre Dame will focus on establishing the passing game this Saturday, and Leonard will reach this milestone for a third time.

Another interesting tidbit: his previous two games with three or more passing touchdowns occurred back-to-back at the start of the 2022 season.

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