Notre Dame’s Playoff Chances Slip After Victory Against Georgia Tech

Notre Dame secured a win on Saturday but saw its CFP odds dip on ESPN'S FPI Sunday

Oct 19, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman on the field against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Notre Dame's 31-13 defeat of Georgia Tech on Saturday secured a win against one of several remaining tests for the Fighting Irish in 2024.

Georgia Tech played without its starting quarterback and leading tackler and Notre Dame took advantage, doing what Notre Dame does. Control the game and suffocate the opponent.

Notre Dame led Georgia Tech for over 47 minutes on Saturday, despite the Yellow Jackets scoring first. The Irish also held a two-score lead or more for the final 26:50 of the game.

Despite the rather dominant showing, Notre Dame's chances to make the College Football Playoff actually went down according to ESPN's Football Power Index after a Saturday full of games.

Notre Dame Moves Down One Spot in ESPN FPI Ratings

Oct 19, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Xavier Watts (0) celebrates after an interception against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Notre Dame had a strong showing at Georgia Tech despite not piling on the points in the second half. Although the Fighting Irish won handedly, they did drop a spot in the ESPN FPI ratings thanks to Tennessee getting a huge home win over Alabama.

Here are the updated top 25 team ratings from ESPN FPI.

1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Georgia
5. Ole Miss
6. Tennessee
7. Notre Dame
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Miami
11. Indiana
12. LSU
13. Clemson
14. Texas A&M
15. USC
16. SMU
17. Louisville
18. Kansas State
19. Iowa State
20. Missouri
21. Boise State
22. Florida
23. South Carolina
24. Colorado
25. Wisconsin

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame's Remainder of Season

Oct 19, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) runs the ball against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Here are Notre Dame's chances at winning each of the remaining five games according to ESPN FPI along with what those chances were a week ago, pre-Georgia Tech. As you'll see, Notre Dame's chances of making the College Football Playoff are very much alive, but actually went down a hair compared to last week because of what happened nationally.

Notre Dame Chance of Victory (compared to a week ago):

vs. Navy: 91.1% (-1.1)
vs. Florida State: 94.9% (+0.4)
vs. Virginia: 92.8% (-0.4)
vs. Army: 84.5% (+0.5)
at USC: 58.2% (+1.7)

Notre Dame Season Projections from ESPN FPI:

📺 ☘️

Next week’s game against Navy will be on ABC at noon #GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/ho69QBlSam

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) October 20, 2024

To Win-Out This Regular Season: 41.1% (up 6.9% from Oct. 13)

Make College Football Playoff: 56.1% (down 1.3%)*

Make National Championship Game: 9.9 (up 1.3%)

Win National Championship: 4.8% (up 0.7%)

*-Notre Dame's 56.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff are the ninth best of any team nationally according to ESPN FPI.

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