Breaking Down the Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Gambling Line

Is Vegas being fair to the Irish to open up the 2024 season at Texas A&M?

Sep 30, 2023; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Elko and Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman meet just before the game at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports / Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M remains a slight favorite as gameday nears

As the college football season and Notre Dame's massive Week 1 matchup with former Irish assistant Mike Elko quickly approach, it seems that most betting lines for the game have settled on the Irish being a 2.5-point underdog to the Aggies. What do you make of this line? Does it seem logical to you?

If you believe that these teams are evenly matched, this line makes works if you account for a 3-point variance swing that oftentimes goes to the home team, in this case, the Aggies. Under this traditional thought process, this line is spot on.

Most bet CFB Week 0 and Week 1 spreads on @DKSportsbook:

1. Colorado -9 vs. ND St

2. Georgia Tech +11.5 vs. FSU

3. FSU -11.5 vs. GT

4. Notre Dame +2.5 at Texas A&M

5. Georgia -14 vs. Clemson

6. Hawaii +13.5 vs. UCLA

7. SMU -27 at Nevada

8. West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State… pic.twitter.com/iQtguu0Cmy

— Julian Edlow (@julianedlow) August 20, 2024

Digging deeper into the psychology of this line is interesting

Marcus Freeman is entering his third season at Notre Dame with a stable staff of trusted, proven confidants and by far his most athletic and well-rounded Irish roster yet. Mike Elko, on the other hand, is brand new on the job, inheriting a 7-6 football team, many new coaches, and over two dozen transfer players.

Given these factors, why exactly is the line favoring Texas A&M, other than the fact that they are the home team? Is there a strong belief in Mike Elko and the talent within the Aggie program? Is there a lack of trust in Notre Dame's ability to perform in "big game" moments, combined with the notion that an Irish roster might struggle against an SEC team? Or perhaps it's a bit of both?

Perception often becomes reality, and this applies to football as well. It seems that Notre Dame's recent history with "big game" moments, combined with doubts about its roster compared to an SEC team with a solid recruiting record, has made it the underdog to start the season.

Can it change this narrative with a significant road win to open the year?

Remember, the line is nothing more than what the market says. One big performance changes the public's perception for the rest of the year.

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