Notre Dame vs. Penn State: Breaking Down the Key Units by the Numbers

A look at the strengths and weaknesses between Notre Dame and Penn State as Orange Bowl kickoff approaches

Jul 26, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; The Capital One Orange Bowl trophy is displayed during Big 10 football media days at Lucas Oil Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The following is by Notre Dame on Sports Illustrated contributor Jeff Feyerer.

We've all spent the last week trying to analyze tonight's game from every angle and nothing that has been said so far is 100% accurate. That's impossible. Both played wildly different schedules. While both have strong defenses, they get the job done in different ways. But I did want to make some last ditch attempt to assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team to maybe get some indication as to what to expect in the Orange Bowl.

I went through each team's offensive and defensive performance in each game this season, looking specifically at four categories: yards gained per rush, yards gained per pass, yards allowed per rush, and yards allowed per pass.

I then measured the team's performance in each game relative to their opponent's average for the season to adjust for level of competition. For example, the Irish averaged 5.6 yards per rush in their first game against Texas A&M. The Aggies allowed 4.0 yards per carry to opponents this year meaning Notre Dame was 45% better than the average. 

For both Notre Dame and Penn State's offense and defense, I averaged all of their individual game performances into one number for the whole season: their performance above or below average on a per play basis adjusted for opponents.

With all that said, here is the ranking of the eight units heading into the matchup:

8. Notre Dame's Pass Offense = 0.04%

Dec 20, 2024; Notre Dame, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) throws during the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Notre Dame Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Ugh. But if you've watched the Irish this season, this isn't unexpected. They started the season with five straight below average performances, before having just two in the last nine. Why not make a big splash on the biggest stage of the season?

Best Game = 11/23 vs Army (62.10%)

Worst Game = 1/2 vs Georgia (-43.06%)

7. Penn State's Pass Defense = 17.74%

Dec 31, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions safety Jaylen Reed (1) celebrates a missed field goal by the Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

This is the area the Irish should try to take advantage of, however, as you'll see, the Irish pass defense hasn't proven yet they are fully equipped to do so.

Best Game = 9/21 vs Kent State (78.30%)

Worst Game = 12/31 vs Boise State (-13.96%)

6. Penn State's Pass Offense = 20.64%

Dec 31, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) throws a pass against the Boise State Broncos during the second half in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Tyler Warren effect. Also important to note, they went 43%, 57% and 51% to start the season against West Virginia, Bowling Green State and Kent State respectively, but have had four consecutive weeks of negative performances.

Best Game = 9/7 vs Bowling Green State (56.80%)

Worst Game = 12/21 vs SMU (-14.95%)

5. Notre Dame's Run Defense = 22.71%

Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Junior Tuihalamaka (44) reacts with Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman RJ Oben (9) after recovering a fumble during the second quarter after the game during the first half at Caesars Superdome. / Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Even with all of the injuries, these guys are peaking at the right time with two of their top four performances this season in the postseason.

Best Game = 9/14 vs Purdue (62.50%)

Worst Game = 11/30 at USC (-34.62%)

4. Notre Dame's Pass Defense = 23.77%

Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Xavier Watts (0) holds up the Sugar Bowl outstanding defensive player trophy after the game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Caesars Superdome. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

There it is. And the Orange Bowl will be their best chance to show-off this season: on a national stage against the best quarterback they've faced.

Best Game = 11/23 vs Army (68.82%)

Worst Game = 9/7 vs NIU (-58.07%)

3. Penn State's Rush Defense = 25.71%

Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton (33) celebrates his tackle of Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) during their Vrbo Fiesta Bowl matchup at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Dec. 31, 2024. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I figured initially it would be Notre Dame's pass defense here and the Nittany Lions certainly didn't face a Murderer's Row of rushing attacks this season (Penn State's opponents averaged 25 rushing yards per game less than Notre Dame's), but they are a stout unit that the Irish will need to overcome.

Best Game = 9/28 vs Illinois (75.00%)

Worst Game = 10/12 at USC (-51.92%)

2. Penn State's Rush Offense = 28.03%

Penn State running back Nick Singleton (10) scores a 4-yard rushing touchdown in the third quarter of a Big Ten football game against Illinois, Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in State College, Pa. / Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Singleton and Allen are a dynamic duo. Not nearly as productive as the Irish, but still very good.

Best Game = 12/7 vs Oregon (102.44%)

Worst Game = 10/12 at USC (-15.56%)

1. Notre Dame Rush Offense = 51.06%

Dec 20, 2024; Notre Dame, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) runs against Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Rolijah Hardy (21) during the third quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

This checks out based on the eye test and even adjusting for quality of defenses, to say a team rushed for 51% more than they should have been allowed is wild.

Best Game = 11/23 vs. Army (129.27%)

Worst Game = 9/28 vs. Louisville (2.70%)

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