Notre Dame’s Worst Case Scenario Heading into Conference Championship Weekend

There is a parlay that Notre Dame will be rooting hard to not hit on Saturday

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) runs the ball against the Southern California Trojans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Notre Dame football has an off-day Saturday for the slew of college football conference championships but that doesn't mean it doesn't have a rooting interest for the afternoon.

Sure, the day starts with action in the Big 12 and MAC championships where the outcomes won't impact Notre Dame's seeding, but there is one scenario the Irish don't want to see play out.

Notre Dame and SEC Championship Between Texas and Georgia

Take Two in ATL#SECChampionship #ItJustMeansMore pic.twitter.com/f7CPN0vy6T

— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) December 6, 2024

Texas and Georgia play in the SEC Championship game at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Both teams appear to be safely in the College Football Playoff but it would be better for Notre Dame if Texas wins than if Georgia knocks off the Longhorns for the second time this season.

Texas is currently ranked No. 2 and if it is to lose Saturday, will obviously move down in the rankings. Will a loss to the currently fifth-ranked Bulldogs move the Longhorns lower than the Irish, who currently sit at No. 4?

There is no guarantee to that so it's better safe than sorry mode for Notre Dame as Irish backers watch this one.

Notre Dame and Big Ten Championship Between Oregon and Penn State

T-minus 2️⃣4️⃣ hours till kickoff ⏳#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/mPIJ8h46HU

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) December 7, 2024

Oregon is the only unbeaten team remaining in FBS college football and if Notre Dame gets its wish, the Ducks will move to 13-0 Saturday night.

Notre Dame is trying to catch Penn State, which currently ranks No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings. With the seeding giving the top-four seeds to conference champions, the loser of this game won't be getting a bye.

For that, Notre Dame hopes Oregon stays unbeaten and at No. 1 and beats Penn State somewhat convincingly. That would give the Irish a shot at passing Penn State and earning the five-seed, considering both went 11-1 in the regular season and Notre Dame will have had more decisive victories over common opponents than the Nittany Lions (Purdue and USC).

Notre Dame's Worst Case Scenario for Conference Championship Games

The one thing Notre Dame doesn't want to happen on Saturday is to see both Georgia and Penn State pull upsets in their respective conference championships games. Both are three-point underdogs but if both are to win then Notre Dame's standing as a top six seed is anything but guaranteed.

If Oregon loses it would fall, but certainly not below Notre Dame, while Penn State would rise.

If Texas loses to Georgia, the Longhorns would also fall. Although that isn't a guarantee that Texas would stay ahead of Notre Dame, the chances are still very strong it would.

In that scenario you're then looking at Notre Dame not only not catching Penn State, but Georgia also passing it as it will get an automatic top four seed in the College Football Playoff.

In that scenario Notre Dame then goes from the six seed to likely the seven. It would still be a favorable First Round playoff game for the Fighting Irish, but the Second Round would mean a date with either the Big Ten or SEC Champion instead of against Boise State or the ACC or Big 12 Champion.

As much you prefer not to see that, it's not to say Notre Dame can't go deep in that scenario. But in a college football season where things have been flat-out crazy, the perceived easier path is just the smart thing to desire, and Saturday's games will determine exactly that.