Could a Two-Loss Notre Dame Team Make the College Football Playoff?

Notre Dame's CFP hopes are slim with two losses, but is there a path if the Irish lose to USC? Breaking down the scenarios and challenges.

Nov 23, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Kris Mitchell (10) gains yards after catch during the first half against the Army Black Knights at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Things change quickly in the modern CFP era

Up until this last weekend, I assumed that Notre Dame absolutely had to finish the season 11-1 to make the 12-team CFP field.

With so many options there was no realistic way for a two-loss Irish team to make the field given how okay-not-amazing the schedule has been.

But, circumstances have changed.

Multiple teams that were hanging in the latest bracket near the bottom with two losses now sit with three. Alabama, Ole Miss ... they dropped out, at least for now.

Does this leave an opening for a two-loss Irish team to be able to remain in the bracket should they lose to USC in the season finale? It's not likely, but it's not impossible.

The odds of this happening are low for a few reasons. Throughout the CFP era, late-season losses are usually penalized much more than early-season ones.

Secondly, both Notre Dame losses would be deemed "bad" losses. That, and the ten games Notre Dame will have won aren't strong enough unless Texas A&M beats Texas and Army runs over Tulane in the AAC Championship.

THE UPDATED CFP BRACKET PROJECTION 🏈 pic.twitter.com/btjbCEx38a

— ESPN (@espn) November 20, 2024

Okay, but could a two-loss Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff?

In this scenario, how bad is the loss to USC? Is it on a perfect performance from the Trojans, or is it ugly?

Does Miami lose to Syracuse? What happens in that Texas vs Texas A&M game? Does SMU misfire in one of its last two games, does Boise State lose to UNLV in the Mountain West Championship, and seriously, did the College Football Playoff committee actually watch Alabama play Oklahoma?

Yeah, that NIU loss still hangs over Notre Dame's head, and 10-2 would be rough, but don't count it out - IF it happens.

(Realistically, the Irish take down the Trojans and all of this is moot.)

We are about to enter new territory in the CFP era

This is always an exciting part of the college football calendar.

Conference championship games are coming up and the CFP field will soon be announced. The expansion of the CFP to 12 games is adding an entirely new level of hype and intrigue to what the postseason will look like.

Rather than there being about a half dozen schools, fans, and media contingents worrying about CFP entry and seeding, there are about 15. Who gets byes? Who lands round-one home games? How will the committee parse through vastly varying resumes, records, and results?

One thing is for sure though, this CFP format, whether you think it's good or bad for the sport, will be a TV ratings bonanza. Each game will be must-watch TV. Buckle up, things are just heating up.

For more Irish news & notes follow John on Twitter @alwaysirishINC, Always Irish on Youtube and or your preferred audio podcast provider.

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