College Football Playoff Projections Overhauled After Wild Week 10

November starts with bang as the last month of the college football regular season sets up to be outstanding

Nov 2, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Oregon Ducks cheerleaders celebrate after a score in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

It was another one of those Saturdays in college football as there were landmines going off all over the country.

Ohio State outdid Penn State in a top five battle in Happy Valley and puts itself in position to be able to make the Big Ten championship. Elsewhere South Carolina routed Texas A&M, ending the Aggies run at a hopeful unbeaten SEC season.

SMU destroyed a previously unbeaten Pittsburgh team and by doing so, has themselves in position to make the ACC championship after Clemson was routed at home by Louisville.

So what does it all mean for the College Football Playoff?

The first College Football Playoff rankings are due out Tuesday night and we'll get a better idea of what the committee is thinking then, but for now, here is how I see the CFP setting up following an absolutely crazy first 10 weeks of the season.

College Football Playoff Projection: Top Four Seeds

Just a friendly reminder before we get going - this is based on what I think will happen combined with what already has this college football season.

One major change here compared to a week ago courtesy of the Iowa State Cyclones losing at home to Texas Tech. The Cyclones get bounced from the tournament altogether with unbeaten BYU earning the Big 12 berth. We've also switched our projection to have Miami win the ACC instead of Clemson, who no longer makes the field after getting routed at home by Louisville.

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Miami (FL)
4. BYU

College Football Playoff Projections: 5-8

Nov 2, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Jordan James (20) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Oregon won again on the road, defeating Michigan rather handidly in the Big House. Oregon remains undefeated but with Ohio State having a clearer path to the Big Ten championship game after winning at Penn State, I have trouble projecting anyone to go 13-0 this regular season so would pick the Buckeyes to beat the Ducks in an Indianapolis rematch.

5. Oregon
6. Texas
7. Notre Dame
8. Penn State

College Football Playoff Projections: 5-8

Tennessee tight end Miles Kitselman (87) celebrating his touchdown with Tennessee offensive linemen Lance Heard (53) and Dayne Davis (66) during an NCAA college football game between Tennessee and Kentucky on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in Knoxville, Tenn. / Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The margin for error with the final four is razor thin. Tennessee played with fire and got by Kentucky but has both Georgia and a havoc-causing Vanderbilt team remaining on the schedule. If the Vols can get through that they'll have the best of the remaining resumes and depending on how Alabama finishes, could be even stronger.

Indiana finally got down against Michigan State on Saturday and then rolled off 40 straight points in a rout. Even if it loses to Ohio State the question isn't if Indiana gets in, but if it can get a home game.

Whoever wins Alabama at LSU next week is in prime position for the 11th spot while Boise State remains the leader for the Group of Five candidates.

9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Boise State

College Football Playoff Projections - Bracket

First Round Byes:

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Miami
4. BYU

First Round Games:

5. Oregon vs. 12. Boise State
6. Texas vs. 11. Alabama
7. Notre Dame vs. 10. Indiana
8. Penn State vs. 9. Tennessee

Second Round Games:

1. Georgia vs. 9. Tennessee
4. BYU vs. 5. Oregon
3. Miami vs. 6. Texas
2. Ohio State vs. 7. Notre Dame

Semi-Final Games

1. Georgia vs. 5. Oregon
2. Ohio State vs. 6. Texas

National Championship

5. Oregon over 2. Ohio State

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