Irish Breakdown

ACC Tournament: What Computer Models Predict for North Carolina vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame takes on North Carolina in the Second Round of the ACC Tournament on Wednesday afternoon

Nick Shepkowski

Jan 4, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Markus Burton (3) dribbles as North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) defends in the first half at the Purcell Pavilion.
Jan 4, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Markus Burton (3) dribbles as North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) defends in the first half at the Purcell Pavilion. / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images
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The Second Round of the ACC Men's Basketball Tournament takes place on Wednesday as Notre Dame, fresh off a last-second win over Pittsburgh Tuesday, takes on North Carolina. The two met once this season with the Tar Heels coming back to win at Notre Dame 74-73 back on January 4.

What kind of chances does Notre Dame have at pulling the upset of fifth-seeded Tar Heels and continuing its season?

Here is what a couple of the more respected computer models in college basketball say.

ESPN BPI: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame ACC Tournament Prediction

ESPN BPI gives North Carolina a huge edge in the contest, giving the Tar Heels at 78.6% chance of winning and moving onto the Quarterfinals where a date with four-seed Wake Forest awaits.

Massey Ratings: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame ACC Tournament Prediction

The good news for Notre Dame is that the popular Massey Ratings give the Fighting Irish a better chance of beating North Carolina than BPI. The bad news is that chances are still far from great.

Massey Win Probability: North Carolina 74%, Notre Dame 26%
Massey Ratings Score Prediction: North Carolina 79, Notre Dame 72

Notre Dame and North Carolina tip-off at 2:30 p.m. ET in a game that can be seen on ESPN.

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Nick Shepkowski
NICK SHEPKOWSKI

Managing Editor for Notre Dame On SI. Started covering Chicago sports teams for WSCR the Score, and over the years worked with CBS Radio, Audacy, NBC Sports, and FOX Sports as a contributor before running the Notre Dame wire site for USA TODAY.

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