Notre Dame Recruiting Mailbag - Part 1

Irish Breakdown recruiting director Ryan Roberts answers subscriber questions about Notre Dame football recruiting

Fresh off of four Irish commitments in four days, the Marcus Freeman effect continues to remain strong on the recruiting trail for both the 2023 and 2024 recruiting classes.

With so many great questions submitted, we once again broke this mailbag into two segments. In this first edition, we will be discussing quarterback recruiting, Samuel M’Pemba and a little of the evaluation that goes on behind the scenes!

As always, questions were submitted by members of the Irish Breakdown premium message board!

@christopher-crosby: It seems kind of like Notre Dame is only recruiting one quarterback at a time for 2023. Maybe the general public isn’t as informed on that. Maybe they are recruiting more than that. Do you like that type of approach or recruiting multiple quarterbacks to create kind of a competition for one spot?

It’s completely understandable why it feels that way but Notre Dame is definitely doing their due diligence with the process since the Dante Moore fiasco came to a close. 

Baylor commit Austin Novosad was the hot name for a couple of weeks but the staff also did extend an offer to Pittsburgh pledge Kenny Minchey around the same time, he just hadn’t made it public until pretty recently. 

Minchey is the main target right now for the Irish but it isn’t the only option out there. In reality the staff is continuing to evaluate and identify potential quarterbacks who may be good fits into the class. There's a difference between what we are hearing publicly and what the Notre Dame staff is doing behind the scenes.

I have talked about this before but I would be very surprised if they didn’t end up with a quarterback they really liked in the class. It is just too deep of a class not to tap into it if a fit makes sense. 

The public perception is not always going to match the actual strategy, which I believe it not fully evident here.

@lanz1499: Do you think Notre Dame’s quarterback recruiting for 2023 would look different if they would have expanded the board back in April?

Probably. The board obviously looked a bit different in regard to quarterbacks who had made public commitments and were still on the board. That could have potentially given them more time to get into certain conversations but either way, you were always going to be coming from behind in a recruitment. 

I’m not critical of how the timing worked out, it just was what it was after they went all in on Dante Moore, who gave a silent commitment in late February, which is why the Irish staff didn't expand the board. Notre Dame still has a big opportunity to land a really talented quarterback in this class. The timing may not ultimately matter in the end.

@burgere23: Any word on (Kenny) Minchey or other possible options?

You probably won’t hear much news on that front for a while. The first step was peaking Minchey’s interest. I believe that they did at least that.

Minchey is currently committed to Pittsburgh and he seems solid in that pledge. The offer that he tweeted out from Notre Dame came a couple weeks prior, around the same time that they offered Baylor commit Austin Novosad. The fact that he did go public with the offer tells me that there is some interest there. 

With the timing of everything, I just don’t believe that it is something that will have much movement early on if it does begin to trend that way. Upping communication in the fall and potentially getting him on campus for a game will be key things to watch. There just won’t be a ton of movement in the near future.

@nbaker13: At what point is it too early to take a commitment from a player? When you're reviewing a sophomore’s film? Do you expect more kids to fall through the cracks, with most recruiting classes completed prior to the start of your senior season?

That’s a fascinating question. I really think it’s on a case by case basis. There are some recruits who are complete projections and some who will ultimately not get a ton better because they are physically advanced but don’t have a ton of growth left. There is also the balance of being “too late” on certain recruits. In some cases, being early can be a huge momentum boost for potentially elite recruits. That’s why strength staff and a collaborative effort in recruiting can be so important. 

Projection can be a huge part of the equation. For the most part, it doesn’t hurt\. There are very few recruits who make pledges super early, especially ones that Notre Dame is recruiting.

There are also going to be some recruits who fall through the cracks regardless. There is always that senior who put it all together or who physically just hit a completely different level than they were previously. That is the nature of recruiting in general, and has nothing really to do with how classes fill up. Players just develop at very different rates.

@crable: Hey Ryan: What are the odds that Notre Dame lands Samuel M’Pemba? With the understanding that kids flip and we don’t know the whole class (Love, M’Pemba, Hanafin etc) – relying on your instinct: What are the odds we finish No. 1 overall? Odds that they finish at least in the top three?

It is really too early to tell. Samuel M’Pemba has made it clear that he intends to take this decision into the fall and hopes to make an announcement in December. That leaves a lot of time for Notre Dame to make their move and hopefully close, but also leaves a lot of chances for other programs to make their push as well. There is just too much uncertainty right now and too much time. 

Right now, I’ll be conservative, and somewhat optimistic, and say that Notre Dame has between a 40 and 50 percent chance to land M’Pemba. They were trending very well with him early on and they still have a chance to get back there in the fall. With how this staff is recruiting, I wouldn’t put anything past them.

I would feel a lot more definitive about the chances if I knew exactly who ended up being the quarterback in the class. Regardless, I think that there is a very high chance that they finish with a top three class, especially with how spread out some of the recruiting talent seems to be this year. 

I’d give it about an 85 percent chance in that department. The quest for the top class is still very much in the cards, they are just playing a close game with other top programs like Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia for that designation. 

I’d say it’s somewhere around 50 percent right now, which is a really nice place to be right now. The next few months will be very interesting to monitor in that department. Regardless, Notre Dame has a very realistic chance to finish with the top class when it is all said and done.

@irishmojo25: How many can Notre Dame take if some of the long shots (M’Pemba) all come to Notre Dame?

We have spoken a little about that in the past. 25 is a number that is thrown out there a lot but I believe that the number is either 26 or 27. In this transfer portal era, numbers can change so quickly and drastically in a very short amount of time. That leaves me to always potentially go “higher” on the projection. Plus 26 to 27 makes a lot of sense when you consider a few of the names left on the board, including running back Jeremiyah Love and M'Pemba, plus Notre Dame is looking for another receiver and a quarterback.

@99problems-but-bk-aint-1: What’s the latest on Caleb Herring and Blake Purchase?

There really isn’t anything substantial, and I wouldn’t expect there to be anything groundbreaking in the near future. On the defensive side of the football, Notre Dame’s class is just about done. The big target left on the board is Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy defender Samuel M’Pemba, who is taking his recruitment into the fall and plans to announce in December. That gives Notre Dame a lot of time, and an official visit, to potentially push for the IMG star. 

With the recent offers extended to Herring and Purchase, it gives the Irish staff potentially more options on the defensive line. They were interested in pushing their class to five commits and that still may be in the cards. The recent offers of these two is almost serving as a test period of interest, especially for Herring who is currently committed to Tennessee. With it being another dead period, I’d expect anything substantial wouldn’t take place until the fall, if at all. They are both, however, worthy of keeping a close eye on.

But right now, the objective for Notre Dame is to keep Keon Keeley in the class. He's a program changer and the reality is Notre Dame can't replace him with anyone else of equal talent, and they know it. That's why they recruited him so hard in the first place and why they are fighting so hard to keep him in the class.

Be sure to check out the Irish Breakdown message board, the Champions Lounge

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