Gambling: Flipping Trends in College Football Against the Spread and Total

Time to look for teams, or totals, that will likely even out following a lopsided start to the season.

Staff Writer | Oct 16, 2021

We are at the midway point of college football season, where some bettors will start looking to implement the “law of averages” approach. Most things even out in the world of sports… especially in the gambling world.

A team is likely not going to cover the spread every game, or never cover at all. The same goes for the total. Most teams aren’t going to play 12 low-scoring games and always fall under, or have 12 shootouts and always go over.

With that being said, here are four games this weekend (plus two bonus matchups) that could fit the bill for this theory and be prime candidates to even out recent trends.

* Indiana (+4.5) vs. Michigan State
Sure, the Spartans are unbeaten and the Hoosiers appear to be a slight mess on paper. Indiana has not covered a spread this entire season and MSU has in 4 of 5 games. But the three losses for Tom Allen’s bunch are all to teams now ranked in the Top-10 nationally; Iowa, Cincinnati and Penn State. Take IU plus the points as they will surely cover a spread at some point. They might even win this game outright.

Confidence Level: HIGH

* Florida vs. LSU (Over 59.5)
The Gators are double-digit favorite, but forget about that and focus on the total. Florida has gone “under” in the last four games while LSU is an even 3-3 against the O/U this season. It’s time for the Gators to have a high-scoring game… and the past two meetings between these schools have seen 70 combined points.

Confidence Level: MEDIUM

* Miami at North Carolina (Over 63)
We know Sam Howell and the Tar Heels can score, but they have fallen under the past two games against some relatively-high totals. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have gone under all four games (on the board) this season. But Tyler Van Dyke now has a couple starts under his belt and last year’s game was 62-26. Feels like it’s time for both teams to hit an over.

Confidence Level: HIGH

* Utah (+1) vs. Arizona State
Who doesn’t enjoy a late-night sweat in the Pac-12? Arizona State has covered three-straight games and but now travels to Rice-Eccles Stadium, which can always provide a stiff test. Utah’s only two losses this year were narrow finals on the road at BYU and San Diego State. This is more so a bet against ASU than on Utah. Either way, back the Utes.

Confidence Level: MEDIUM

BONUS SELECTIONS: (both at a low confidence level)

* Bowling Green/Northern Illinois (Over 45)
* Ole Miss (-2.5) at Tennessee

As always... wager responsibly!

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