Ideal College Football Playoff Scenario For Ohio State

The Ohio State Buckeyes will be in the College Football Playoff this year, but what is the ideal scenario for them at this point?

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) talks to his team in the huddle during the NCAA football game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. Ohio State won 38-15. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After being upset by the Michigan Wolverines in the final game of the regular season, the Ohio State Buckeyes are awaiting their official spot in the College Football Playoff. As the Buckeyes practice, prepare and get healthy for a playoff run, it is a good time to look at the ideal path to the National Championship game at this point.

With numerous conference championship games set to take place, there could still be a lot of movement in the playoff seeding.

From Ohio State's perspective here would be the ideal winners from the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and ACC.

Big Ten - Oregon Ducks

With the Oregon Ducks winning the Big Ten Championship and remaining undefeated on the year, they easily lock up the No. 1 seed and a first round bye. This only strengthens Ohio State's one-point loss in Eugene earlier in the year.

The Penn State Nittany Lions would then have two losses on the year, matching Ohio State. A safe assumption is that due to Ohio State's head-to-head victory over the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley, they would then get a higher seed.

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) celebrates a first down run beside Penn State Nittany Lions linebacker Kobe King (41) during the NCAA football game at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa. on Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. Ohio State won 20-13. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

SEC - Texas Longhorns

A win for the Texas Longhorns means that they lock up a bye and likely the No. 2 seed. If Texas loses to Georgia, there is a good chance they remain ahead of Ohio State with two losses.

The Georgia Bulldogs would then fall to 10-3 and definitely sit behind Ohio State in the rankings.

Big 12 - Arizona State Sun Devils

The winner of this game gets in the College Football Playoff and the loser does not. It appears to be that simple.

Although this game does not matter as much to Ohio State, I do believe that Arizona State is the weaker of the two teams between them and Iowa State. A Sun Devils win would not be a bad thing despite it being unlikely that the Buckeyes will even get to face them at any point.

ACC - SMU

SMU has an excellent shot to sneak into the College Football Playoff even with a close loss to the Clemson Tigers. As for the Tigers, they have to win this game to get a chance at a playoff run.

SMU winning would mean they get a bye and likely the No. 3 seed. Assuming Boise State wins the Mountain West Championship, they get the final first-round bye and No. 4 seed.

If this is how everything plays out, the expectations for first-round matchups should be something along the lines of No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Ohio State, No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Penn State and No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Tennessee.

Alabama traveling to Ohio Stadium in December is ideal for the Buckeyes. This is not the Alabama of old. They are still a respectable team, yet they lost to Vanderbilt in a major upset, fell by one score to Tennessee and only put up three points on a disappointing Oklahoma team. With their offense failing to look explosive, Ohio State's defense should fair well in the cold weather. Getting the Crimson Tide out of the way early could be a massive confidence booster as well.

Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis (10) and defensive lineman Trace Ford (30) tackle Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Alabama Crimson Tide at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. Oklahoma won 24-3. / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As for the other matchups to start the playoff, Notre Dame should beat Arizona State, Penn State has a great shot to beat a Georgia team way below their usual standards this year at home and Indiana versus Tennessee may be closer than some would expect. If the Big Ten can clean house, that bodes well for the Buckeyes.

In this scenario, Ohio State would be looking at a matchup with No. 3 SMU. Even though the Mustangs are a talented football team, the Buckeyes are way more battle tested and have a more complete team. Alabama would likely pose a greater challenge than this matchup, which would be nice for the Buckeyes on their path to a National Title clash.

As for the rest, No. 5 Notre Dame should get past No. 4 Boise State if they can slow down running back Ashton Jeanty, No. 7 Penn State pulling off a massive upset over No. 2 Texas would be ideal and even though it would be great to see No. 9 Indiana take down the No. 1 Oregon Ducks, the Hoosiers run would likely end here. Penn State may be a reach but they feel like the best upset chance of these games.

With four teams remaining, the semifinal stage would be set with No. 5 Notre Dame versus No. 1 Oregon and No. 7 Penn State versus No. 6 Ohio State. Many might not love the Big Ten rematch, however, James Franklin's teams have struggled to beat the Buckeyes. With Ohio State continuously getting the better of Penn State, this is a good matchup for the Buckeyes.

Notre Dame winning would likely set up the easier championship clash, yet Ohio State should want revenge at the same time as a championship. After losing to the Ducks in a game they should have won on the road, then watching Oregon win the Big Ten Championship, a chance to snatch a National Title away from Oregon would be glorious. Ohio State can absolutely matchup well against the Ducks and could emulate the 2014 National Championship where they beat the Ducks 42-20.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith hauls in a catch as the No. 3 Oregon Ducks host the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It would be a fitting way for the inaugural 12-team playoff to go down.

Now Ohio State can sit back and see what happens this weekend. Perhaps this scenario could have a chance of playing out.