Stacking Up Ohio State's Offense Against Minnesota's Defense

Here's a statistical breakdown of how the Buckeyes offensively should compare to Minnesota's defense.

Let's get one thing straight right off the top. 

There are a players returning to Ohio State's juggernaut offense in 2021 and there's really no reason to expect that the Buckeyes are going to take a significant step backwards. 

But with C.J. Stroud taking over as the new starting quarterback and with an offensive line that appears to have two new starters and position changes across the board, Ohio State needs to go out and prove that the high expectations around the program aren't just all talk.

Since this is the first game of the season, a full statistical comparison between the two teams might not be perfectly reflective of Thursday's matchup. New year, new team ... and hopefully much more predictability as to who will play on any given weekend. But I think there are themes that can be taken away regarding what both teams are intent on establishing this season.

Ohio State's Scoring Offense vs. Minnesota's Scoring Defense

Advantage: Ohio State

The biggest thing that stands out here is the fact that even with a pretty frustrating game against Alabama in the CFP National Title game, Ohio State still managed an 8-game averaged of nearly 520 yards per game, 41 points per night and 7.3 yards per play. Sure, they had an elite quarterback last year guiding the way, and as you'll see in a moment, there was good balance between the run and pass last year. But the Buckeye offense was only stymied by one of the greatest college football teams of all time.

Meanwhile, Minnesota really struggled against the better teams on its scheduled. They performed admirably against some of the lesser teams in the league, but the Gophers were a hot pick at the beginning of 2020 to represent the West Division in the Big Ten title game. As the season went along, it became clear that their young defense wasn't quite ready for that pedigree. They forced just seven turnovers in seven games and as you'll see in a moment, they had a miserable time against the run.

I expect the Buckeye offense to establish a run early in this game and even with a new QB, I would be very surprised if they score fewer than 30 points.

Ohio State's Passing Offense vs. Minnesota's Passing Defense

Advantage: Ohio State

The Buckeyes moved the football methodically through the air on every single opponent, outside of Alabama. With the best group of returning wideouts and an absolutely loaded freshmen class at receiver, I don't see Minnesota holding up in the secondary. Most teams ran the ball against them more last year because the defense couldn't stop the run either. If Ohio State's offensive line holds up, I think Stroud could get his career off to a great start.

Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi is back for another year with Minnesota after his unit was plagued by absences all season. FPI ranks Minnesota as the ninth best team in the league this year, giving them a 0.9 percent chance to win the league title. If they're going to pull off that miracle, their defense needs to be much better. 

Statistically their pass defense looked okay, but as you'll see in a moment, I think it's because teams dared them to stop the run (which they really struggled to do against the upper echelon backs in the league). But their lack of QB pressure and sacks stands out to me as an area they really need to improve. Eight sacks in seven games isn't good enough.

Ohio State's Rushing Offense vs. Minnesota's Rushing Defense

Advantage: Ohio State

This is perhaps where I expect to see the Buckeyes take most advantage of Minnesota. I'm also sure it's been a focal point for the Gophers all off-season to get better in the box. But this figures to be a significant OSU advantage.

To be fair, Minnesota’s rush defense improved dramatically as the year progressed, but 2020 got off to a pretty horrific start. There were 127 teams in FBS last year and the Gopher rush defense wasn't pretty. They allowed 537 rushing yards (268.5 yards/game) and eight touchdowns to Michigan and Maryland in the first two weeks of the season. Iowa also ran for 235 and four touchdowns. They finished 124th in yards per carry and managed just 18 tackles for loss over their 7-game season.

Purdue, Nebraska and Wisconsin weren’t particularly good running teams last year, but Minnesota allowed just 165.7 yards/game and one touchdown/game over those last three contests.

Meanwhile, Ohio State sported one of the best team rushing attacks in the country. This year's group sees Master Teague return, Miyan Williams is back and will likely feature in a more prominent role, and freshman star TreVeyon Henderson is going to see some carries this fall.

Check out the seven teams that had a "better" rushing attack than Ohio State last year.

With all due respect to those seven programs, none of them have as potent a rushing attack as the Buckeyes do. Only Army, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State played more games than Ohio State did in that sample.

Last year, Ohio State scored at least five touchdowns in six of their eight games. I'd be awfully surprised if they don't find the end zone at least that many times on Thursday night.

The only way I see Minnesota keeping up with Ohio State is if they can keep the Buckeye offense off the field, and that would likely mean frustrating Stroud with a good pass rush - something the Gophers did a poor job of last fall.

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