Westward Bound: Big Ten Looking Into Further Expansion?
College football realignment isn't stopping anytime soon, and it's clear the Big Ten is monitoring all options heading past the 2023-24 calendar year.
According to multiple reports, a small group of Big Ten presidents held a preliminary meeting Wednesday to discuss adding two to four new members from the Pac-12. Per Yahoo Sports, Washington, Oregon, Stanford and California are all expected to be under consideration, with Washington and Oregon being the primary targets.
The conference looks to be at an impasse on how many schools it plans to add if offered a chance for further expansion. According to Sports Illustrated's Pat Forde, conference presidents are interested in adding all four schools, while the league’s media partners are more keen on a two-member addition, thus bringing the total to 18 programs.
USC and UCLA announced their intentions to leave the Pac-12 following the end of their current media rights and join the Big Ten in 2024, bringing the total number of schools to 16 for next season.
“The Big Ten Conference is still focused on integration of USC and UCLA, but it’s also commissioner’s job to keep conference chancellors and presidents informed about new developments as they occur," the league said in a statement Wednesday following the report.
The Pac-12 could be on life support if the nine remaining schools disagree with a new proposed media rights deal in the coming days. USC and UCLA were the first to depart the conference, but not the last. Last month, Colorado announced its intent to leave following the 2023-24 calendar year and rejoin the Big 12 after a 13-year hiatus.
The Big 12 has continued its search for further expansion following the departures of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, which will kick into effect come July 1, 2024. The league added BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston for the 2023 season, and intends on adding at least one more program along with Colorado next fall to keep the conference total at 14 schools, if not expand to 16.
Arizona, Arizona State and Utah have been linked to the Big 12 since last fall after the USC-UCLA announcement, with Arizona being considered the favorite to jump ship. If all three schools were to defect from the Pac-12, the conference would be left with just six remaining programs entering contract negotiations for a media rights deal.
Washington and Oregon have been the two most prominent schools outside of the Pac-12 flagships since the indoctrination of the College Football Playoff. The Ducks were among the inaugural members of the four-team playoff in 2014. The Huskies, who are coming off an 11-2 season under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer, were the conference's last representative in the CFP, dating back to 2016.
Any further departure could hurt the Pac-12's chances of finding a prominent media rights deal, regardless of the platform. On Tuesday, commissioner George Kliavkoff presented a potential media rights deal, with its best option being around a streaming-center Apple TV deal that would reportedly net programs approximately $20 million annually, more than $10 million less than the expected revenue of the Big 12's new deal that begins in 2025.
One of the major concerns surrounding a streaming platform deal is that it's highly "incentive-based." In a pay-for-play method, Apple would be using the Pac-12 to boost its subscription total for Apple TV+, thus allowing both sides to split part of the profit.
The Big Ten could wait until programs like Washington and Oregon are at their lowest point to strike a deal, but the two programs seem to be wary of the travel logistics surrounding all sporting aspects, including football.
For now, eyes are locked on the media rights negotiation between Kliavkoff and the remaining universities entering the 2023 season. Any more disbandment internally could lead to programs looking for new homes past the 2023 season.
One home? The Big Ten, which seems keen on moving past its 16-team model sometime in the not-so-distant future.
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