Ohio State Buckeyes on Bubble After Embarrassing Loss to Northwestern

OSU's latest defeats leave little margin for error.

Feb 20, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Jake Diebler speaks to guard Evan Mahaffey (12) in the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Samantha Madar/USA Today Network via Imagn Images / Samantha Madar-Imagn Images

Despite hovering around the middle of the Big Ten standings all year, Ohio State has generally been considered an NCAA Tournament team due to a strong strength of schedule and favorable advanced metrics.

After consecutive losses to No. 12 Michigan and Northwestern, plus a defeat to Nebraska on February 9, the Buckeyes' tournament hopes are now in jeopardy.

Following Thursday's 70-49 home loss to the Wildcats, Ohio State is 15-12 and just 7-9 in conference play. The Buckeyes rank 10th in the Big Ten, and without a strong finish, they could be on the outside looking in.

Ohio State trailed by just seven coming out of halftime but was thoroughly dismantled by Northwestern. The Wildcats went on a 17-2 run to effectively ice the game as the Buckeyes took nearly seven minutes to make their first field goal of the half. The deficit ballooned to as much as 28 while Fox Sports color commentator Robbie Hummel openly questioned the Buckeyes' effort.

The Buckeyes shot just 29.2% from the field and were outrebounded, 21-8, in the second half. For now, they're still inside the bracket, but that may not last long if their struggles continue.

ESPN's BPI metric currently lists Ohio State as having a 56% chance to make it into March Madness, down from 85% last week. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi predicts the Buckeyes as a No. 10-seed, but OSU is barely ahead of a "last four byes" group that includes the Cornhuskers.

Ohio State's 11th-best strength of schedule gives the Buckeyes a boost to 32nd overall in KenPom's NET Ranking, but recent results have moved them down to 39th in Bart Torvik's T-Rank metric. OSU has played in several high-caliber games, but is just 5-10 against Quad 1 opponents and 4-4 versus Quad 2.

To wrap up the regular season, Ohio State will have games at UCLA, USC and Indiana with a home matchup against Nebraska splitting the two road trips. The Buckeyes are currently favored in just one of the four games, and if they can't fix how they played on Thursday, Ohio State will likely not be an NCAA Tournament team.

Read More Ohio State Buckeyes Coverage

MORE: New York Jets Connected to Ohio State Buckeyes' Sleeper Defender

MORE: Ohio State Buckeyes See 10 Players Taken in New Three-Round Mock Draft

MORE: Ohio State Buckeyes QB Forecast to Join Chip Kelly Again

MORE: Former Ohio State Buckeyes Defender Donovan Munger Passes Away at 30

MORE: Urban Meyer Shares Mammoth Concern About Ohio State Buckeyes in 2025