Making The Case For Ohio State To Be Ranked Ahead Of Notre Dame

Making a case for the Ohio State Buckeyes to be ranked ahead of the Notre Dame ahead of the Week 15 CFP Rankings.

Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs (2) celebrates an interception during the second half of the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. Michigan won 13-10. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After the Ohio State Buckeyes' heartbreaking loss to the Michigan Wolverines, fans have been questioning how far head coach Ryan Day and his squad will fall in the Week 15 edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings.

I made a prediction on Monday that Ohio State will fall to the No. 6 spot. While I believe that the Buckeyes fall four spots, there are many cases that can be made for the program to receive a higher ranking, especially over a team like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

In order to begin the argument of the Buckeyes being rated higher than head coach Marcus Freeman's team, we have to look at the official "criteria" when selecting the top 25 teams:

"The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable. The selection committee is comprised of experts in college football, and they use their expertise in the deliberations."

- College Football Playoff

The selection committee members also use statistical data and review "a significant amount of game video" to make decisions. According to the CFP website, "SportSource Analytics to provide the statistical information for the committee’s use."

Knowing the committee's criteria, here's how the two teams stack up against each other when comparing resumes from the 2024 season:

	Ohio State	Notre Dame
Record	10-2	11-1
Ranked Wins (teams that are currently ranked)*	No. 4 Penn State (20-13), No. 10 Indiana (38-15)	No. 20 Texas A&M (23-13)
Losses	No. 1 Oregon (32-31), Michigan (13-10)	Northern Illinois (16-14)
Strength of Schedule (According to ESPN)	No. 26	No. 57
Common Opponents	W vs. Purdue (45-0)	W vs. Purdue (66-7)
ESPN's Efficiency Ranking	No. 3 (87.4)	No. 2 (88.5)
ESPN's Offensive Efficiency Ranking	No. 4 (81.0)	No. 10 (78.5)
ESPN's Defensive Efficiency Ranking	No. 4 (83.2)	No. 2 (88.3)
College Football Insider's Power Ratings	No. 3	No. 4
PFF's NCAA Power Rankings	No. 1	No. 5

*rankings based off of Week 14 edition of the CFP Rankings

When examining some of the baseline components of the each program's resume, Notre Dame has the better record and a larger win against a common opponent in Purdue. However, Ohio State has the advantage in ranked wins and strength of schedule. Depending on how the CFP committee ranks Texas A&M after the Aggies Week 14 loss to Texas, the Fighting Irish could have zero teams ranked in the within the CFP Top 25 Rankings.

While we may not have access to the data from SportSource Analytics, there are other resources to fill in the gaps on the advanced analytics category. For example, Notre Dame ranks ahead of Ohio State in ESPN's efficiency ratings, while the Buckeyes are rated higher than the Fighting Irish according to PFF's and College Football Insider's Power Rankings.

Even though both team's did not play against each other during the 2024 college football season, we can use projection models to paint a picture of how the a contest could pan out. Using College Football Insider's projection model, Ohio State’s probability to beat Notre Dame on a neutral-site field would be 51.45 percent.

Interesting little tidbit before the Week 15 edition of the CFP Rankings: Using @NCAAInsiders projection model, Ohio State’s probability to beat Notre Dame on a neutral-site field would be 51.45% pic.twitter.com/I2RDotsGRh

— Dylan Feltovich (@dyfelt) December 3, 2024

Obviously, games are won on the field and not on a sheet of paper. But using resources like College Football Insider's matchup preview model, fans and committee members could get a picture of a potential outcome of this hypothetical game.

Ultimately, both teams are two of the best in college football this season. While I do not agree with putting Notre Dame ahead of Ohio State, I believe that the committee will favor Notre Dame based off of the record.