Predicting Where Ohio State Lands In Week 15 Edition Of CFP Rankings

Predicting where the Ohio State Buckeyes land in this week's edition of the CFP rankings after losing to Michigan.

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) and Ohio State Buckeyes offensive lineman Carson Hinzman (75) leave the field turned over on downs to the Michigan Wolverines in Saturday’s NCAA Division I football game at Ohio Stadium, sealing a 13-10 win for the Wolverines. / Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With the Ohio State Buckeyes officially out of the running for a spot in the Big Ten Championship, the program's attention now shifts to the College Football Playoffs.

Even though head coach Ryan Day and his team suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Michigan Wolverines in the Week 14 at home, the Buckeyes' resume should be enough to guarantee a spot in the 2024 College Football Playoffs. Outside of the Michigan game, Ohio State has one loss to the No. 1 Oregon Ducks by one point, along with two ranked wins against the No. 4 ranked Penn State Nittany Lions and No. 10-ranked Indiana Hoosiers.

There is no doubt in my mind that the Buckeyes will be in the College Football Playoffs this year. Instead, the million-dollar question that is running through the minds of fans is where do the does the team rank after the loss?

After looking at the Week 14 CFP rankings and the Week 15 AP Top 25 Polling, my guess is Ohio State falls five spots to the No. 6.

Here’s my prediction of what the Week 15 CFP rankings will look like (this is not how I’d rank them, just what I think the committee will do):

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3.Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6.Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12.…

— Dylan Feltovich (@dyfelt) December 2, 2024

Both Oregon and Texas are locks for the top two spots after the Buckeyes' loss to the Wolverines on Saturday. However, despite losing to Ohio State, the Nittany Lions will likely move up one spot to No. 3, since the team's only loss came to Day in Week 10. Notre Dame also benefits from the Week 14 shakeups, as the 11-1 Fighting Irish's resume is good enough for a spot in the CFP.

The real question is this: how does the committee rank Georgia, Tennessee, and Ohio State? Here's a breakdown of each team's resumes:

	Georgia	Tennessee	Ohio State
Record	10-2	10-2	10-2
Losses	No. 13 Alabama (41-34), No. 14 Ole Miss (28-10)	Arkansas (19-14), No. 7 Georgia (31-17)	No. 1 Oregon (32-31), Michigan (13-10)
Ranked Wins (teams that are currently ranked)*	No. 12 Clemson (34-3), No. 3 Texas (30-15), No. 8 Tennesse (31-17)	No. 13 Alabama (24-17)	No. 4 Penn State (20-13), No. 10 Indiana (38-15)
Strength of Schedule (ESPN)	No. 3	No. 28	No. 26
Week 15 AP Pollings	No. 5 (1302)	No. 6 (1200)	No. 7 (1174)
Total Margin of Losses	-25 Points	-19 Points	-4 Points
Total Margin of Ranked Wins	+60 Points	+7 Points	+30 Points

*rankings based off of Week 14 edition of the CFP Rankings

All three teams have two losses, but head coach Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs have a better resume than the Buckeyes. But when comparing Tennessee's resume against Ohio State's, it's clear that Day's squad has the advantage. The Buckeyes' have more ranked wins of teams that are in the CFP Top 25, a tougher strength of schedule, and a better point margin in losses and wins against ranked opponents.

The only issue that sticks out is the Week 15 AP Polling, as the Volunteers' hold a one-spot lead. Every week, AP Rankings tend to reflect the College Football Playoff Committee's rankings. No matter how the CFP committee handles these team, the two would face off against each other in a No. 8 vs No. 9 matchup.

If that’s the case, this is how the seeding would look:

#1 Oregon - BYE
#2 Texas - BYE
#3 SMU - BYE
#4 Boise State - BYE
#5 Penn State vs #12 Arizona State
#6 Notre Dame vs #11 Alabama
#7 Georgia vs #10 Indiana
#8 Ohio State vs #9 Tennessee

— Dylan Feltovich (@dyfelt) December 2, 2024

Looking ahead, there is hope that Day and the Buckeyes could move up in the rankings after the Big Ten Championship. If Oregon beats Penn State on Saturday, the Nittany Lions would have two losses on the season. Since Ohio State lost to Oregon by one point and beat Penn State on the road, there is a possibility that the committee gives Ohio State the advantage. This depends on how the CFP committee views a conference championship game compared to the regular season.

The Week 15 edition of the College Football Playoff Selection Show is set for Tuesday, Dec 3 at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN.