Handicapping Oklahoma's Final Five Games

This season has already been a disappointment for a team that began the year in the top 10, but these next five contests will determine if the year is a disaster or simply a downer.

John E. Hoover | Oct 23, 2022

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Oklahoma Sooners

Can Oklahoma run the table?

That’s what Sooner Nation wants to know now that the three-game losing streak has been ended.

Is it possible for an Oklahoma team that was outscored 145-58 and outgained 1,762-1,080 in a three-game span to finish a season with six consecutive wins?

Nobody in Norman wants to finish 6-6. The best, Brent Venables often says, is the standard. And at Oklahoma, that means winning.

A 9-3 record with a bowl victory means another 10-win season and something solid on which Venables and his coaching staff can build.

But there’s also the distinct possibility that this OU team’s stumbles aren’t over, that a losing record in Venables’ first year could absolutely happen.

The remainder of OU’s Big 12 schedule is daunting. The three “easier” opponents all host the Sooners at their house. The two home games are against the toughest opponents left.

One thing is certain: Going into Saturday's action, Oklahoma had already suffered losses to teams that went into the weekend in first, second and third atop the Big 12 standings. It shouldn’t get any harder from here.

AllSooners handicaps Oklahoma’s five remaining games:

At Iowa State (3-4, 0-4)

Oct. 29, Ames

Saturday's result: Idle

Coming off this weekend’s open date, OU is currently favored to beat the Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. That’s not surprising: OU’s loss in 2020 was the Sooners’ first in Ames since 1960. FanDuel is offering OU as a 4-point favorite.

The Cyclones remain the Big 12’s only winless team in conference play (0-4) with four straight losses to Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State and Texas.

Like OU, ISU is off this weekend as well.

Hunter Dekkers / Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

The Cyclones did beat Iowa and are only yielding 15.1 points per game. But as good as Iowa State has been defensively, the Cyclones are just as challenged offensively, averaging 3.3 yards per rush and quarterback Hunter Dekkers throwing seven interceptions and being sacked 11 times.

Jirhel Brock leads the Cyclones with 398 yards on the ground (5.0 per carry) but has just two rushing TDs. That's OK because wideout Xavier Hutchinson leads the nation with 9.6 receptions per game and ranks fifth nationally with 758 receiving yards. Hutchinson averages 108 yards per game.

Matt Campbell's defense leads the Big 12 in fewest passing yards allowed (184.4 per game) and fewest rushing yards allowed (105.3 per game), as well as scoring defense and total defense.

Will McDonald (3.5 QB sacks, three hurries) is one of the nation's top defensive linemen, and O'Rien Vance (three forced fumbles, one fumble recovered, five tackles for loss) is an excellent linebacker, but the Cyclones play team defense better than anyone in the Big 12.

Chance OU wins: 60 percent.

Baylor (4-3, 2-2)

Nov. 5, Norman

Saturday's result: Baylor 35, Kansas 23

Everyone knows Oklahoma doesn’t lose often at home — at least to anyone other than Kansas State — and surely isn’t going to stumble in back-to-back home games at Owen Field. Right?

But this isn’t Bob Stoops’ home magic, nor Lincoln Riley’s. This team needs to figure out how to win — and that means not taking for granted the luxury of playing at home.

Baylor is the defending Big 12 champ, but has been mostly ordinary this year.

A 26-20 double-overtime loss at Baylor, a 36-25 loss to Oklahoma State in a title game rematch, and a stunning 43-40 loss at West Virginia show this is a different Dave Aranda team than the one that physically pounded the Sooners last year in Waco. Before Saturday, Baylor’s two best wins came against the likes of Albany (69-10) and Texas State (42-7) — games in which the Bears padded some numbers.

Quarterback Blake Shapen is already back from a concussion after a very Dillon Gabriel-type hit. He went into the weekend completing 69 percent of his passes for 241 yards per game with 11 TDs and only three interceptions, but had just 164 yards and threw two picks against KU. Shapen worked the deep ball well ahead of Saturday, with Gavin Holmes (24.4 yards per catch) and Monaray Baldwin (21.2) excelling at the big play.

Also, freshman Richard Reese (457 yards rushing ahead of Saturday, 5.4 yards per carry, seven touchdowns) has been a nice surprise. Reese literally carried the Bears Saturday with 31 carries for 186 yards and two touchdowns.

Defensively, Baylor might have one of the best interiors around with Siaki Aka and Jaxon Player up front. But the defense went into the weekend with just 10 quarterback sacks and six takeaways, and West Virginia shredded them for 500 yards and 26 first downs.

Before Bears go to Norman, they visit Texas Tech.

Chance OU wins: 55 percent.

West Virginia (3-4, 1-3)

Nov. 12, Morgantown

Saturday's result: Texas Tech 48, WVU 10

Neal Brown's Mountaineers are a dropped pass-turned-pick six against Pittsburgh and an overtime interception against Kansas away from being 5-2. And losing in OT to Kansas no longer looks bad on the resume.

Routing Virginia Tech 33-10 in Blacksburg, then shocking Baylor 43-40 last week in Morgantown, are two wins that Oklahoma needs to notice.

Quarterback J.T. Daniels, a two-time transfer from USC and Georgia, settled in well: 249 yards per game going into Saturday's action, a .640 completion percent and nine touchdowns with just three interceptions.

Tony Mathis (459 yards ahead of the trip to Lubbock, 5.0 yards per carry, five TDs) and C.J. Donaldson (389, 6.9, six) have provided a steady 1-2 punch on the ground, and Bryce Ford-Wheaton already has 40 receptions (11.6 yards per catch) and four TDs.

Defensively, there is plenty of talent, such as DL Dante Stills and Sean Martin, but WVU gave up 31.3 points per game and 6.1 yards per play and only had four fumble recoveries and two interceptions in its first six games.

Games against TCU and at Iowa State lay ahead of hosting the Sooners.

Chance OU wins: 65 percent

Oklahoma State (6-1, 3-1)

Nov. 19, Norman

Saturday's result: OSU 41, Texas 34

A soft non-conference schedule (easy wins over Central Michigan, Arizona State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff) didn’t do much to help prepare OSU for Big 12 play.

But avenging last year’s Big 12 title game loss to Baylor in the league opener, 36-25 in Waco, was impressive. OSU also overcame a slow start at home to Texas Tech and was able to pull away to a comfortable victory. Saturday's second-half dominance against Texas was impressive.

Last week’s double-overtime loss at TCU was a bitter pill to swallow. The Cowboys had a 17-point lead to stay unbeaten and couldn’t hold off a Horned Frogs rally.

Spencer Sanders, who missed practice last week with a shoulder injury and still came in and played well against TCU and then toasted Texas with 391 yards and two TDs, is making a case to repeat as the All-Big 12 QB.

Ahead of Saturday, OSU’s receiver corps featured five receivers with at least 16 catches, led by Brayden Johnson (19.9 yards per catch, three TDs) and Bryson Green (17.8, four TDs, five catches for 133 and a score against UT), and Dominic Richardson has been a workhorse (121 carries) but is only averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry.

The OSU defense under first-year coordinator Derek Mason has been better than expected after sustaining heavy losses to the NFL.

The Cowboys are a problem up front as they went into Saturday ranked 21st nationally with 2.83 quarterback sacks per game and second nationally with 9.2 tackles for loss per game, although they had just 5 TFLs and one sack Saturday.

Mason Cobb, Jason Taylor, Xavier Benson, Kendal Daniels, Tyler Lacy, Brock Martin and Collin Oliver have all been playing at an All-Big 12 level, although Taylor sustained a knee injury Saturday.

OU can hope tradition holds — the Cowboys have won just one of their last nine trips to Norman — but that’s not much.

OSU still faces three Big 12 challenges before heading south: at Kansas State, at Kansas and home against Iowa State.

Chance OU wins: 40 percent.

Texas Tech (4-3, 2-2)

Nov. 26, Lubbock

Saturday's result: Texas Tech 48, West Virginia 10

Before blowing out WVU, Texas Tech’s most impressive victory this year was a 37-34 over Texas in Lubbock back on Sept. 24. In between, the Red Raiders suffered two competitive road losses: 37-28 at Kansas State and 41-31 at Oklahoma State.

Beating Houston 33-30 in double overtime was a quality win, and a 27-14 loss at North Carolina State was a quality loss, if there is such a thing.

Joey McGuire’s first season hasn’t been without thrills: Prior to this week's blowout, Tech was outscoring opponents 35-30.

Donovan Smith :: Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK

McGuire has utilized three quarterbacks, and two played Saturday. Injuries and inconsistent play at the position have helped produce 24 sacks and 10 interceptions. Donovan Smith came into the weekend averaging 246 yards per game and completing 66 percent of his throws, while Behren Morton has now played in six games, including a 39-of-62, 379-yard, two-TD performance against OSU. Week 1 starter Tyler Shough is reportedly close to returning. Smith is also a threat to run, with 212 yards gained and four TDs on the ground.

All those quarterbacks spread the ball around, as nine different receivers have at least 11 receptions this year. Also, running back Tahj Brooks amassed 107 yards and two TDs against WVU.

The defense struggles to consistently generate stops, but players like Krishon Merriweather (55 tackles) and Tyree Wilson (6.5 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss) are capable of producing big plays. As a team, Tech went into the WVU game ranked 125th nationally in turnover margin, and the Red Raiders are 71st in rush defense, 55th in pass defense, 57th in total defense and 94th in scoring defense.

Up next is a home game with Baylor, a visit to TCU, a home game with Kansas and one last road trip to Iowa State before finishing with the Sooners.

Chance OU wins: 55 percent.

Published Oct 23, 2022

JOHN E. HOOVER

John is an award-winning journalist whose work spans five decades in Oklahoma, with multiple state, regional and national awards as a sportswriter at various newspapers. During his newspaper career, John covered the Dallas Cowboys, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Oklahoma Sooners, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, the Arkansas Razorbacks and much more. In 2016, John changed careers, migrating into radio and launching a YouTube channel, and has built a successful independent media company, DanCam Media. From there, John has written under the banners of Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, Fan Nation and a handful of local and national magazines while hosting daily sports talk radio shows in Oklahoma City, Tulsa and statewide. John has also spoken on Capitol Hill in Oklahoma City in a successful effort to put more certified athletic trainers in Oklahoma public high schools. Among the dozens of awards he has won, John most cherishes his national "Beat Writer of the Year" from the Associated Press Sports Editors, Oklahoma's "Best Sports Column" from the Society of Professional Journalists, and Two "Excellence in Sports Medicine Reporting" Awards from the National Athletic Trainers Association. John holds a bachelor's degree in Mass Communications from East Central University in Ada, OK. Born and raised in North Pole, Alaska, John played football and wrote for the school paper at Ada High School in Ada, OK. He enjoys books, movies and travel, and lives in Broken Arrow, OK, with his wife and two kids.