History Shows Being a Huge Underdog Doesn't Matter Much in Oklahoma-Texas Rivalry

Oddsmakers say the Longhorns will beat the Sooners by two touchdowns, but that almost never happens when one team is a heavy favorite in the Red River Rivalry.

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel runs away from Texas. / Bryan Terry/The Oklahoman / USA TODAY NETWORK

So Oklahoma is a heavy underdog in Saturday’s matchup with Texas.

Maybe the Sooners have the Longhorns right where they want them.

Oklahoma (4-1 overall, 1-1 SEC) and Texas (5-0, 1-0) meet at 2:30 p.m. Saturday. OU is a 14 1/2-point underdog in this year’s Red River Rivalry — and while that’s a big number and an indicator of where the programs are one month into the 2024 season, the odds are hardly insurmountable.

In the last 12 years, teams favored by double digits at The State Fair of Texas are 0-5 covering that spread.

This is Texas’ first time as a double-digit favorite since 2005, however. Oklahoma was the big favorite in those last five meetings. While the Sooners didn’t cover the spread in any of them, they did win four of the five.

“It's a rivalry game,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said Monday at his weekly press conference. “Forget — forget whatever. We're favored or we're not. It doesn't matter. You know, the records and things don't matter in games like this.”

Only twice in the last 25 years has a double-digit favorite covered in the Cotton Bowl: 2011, when the Sooners were favored by 11 and won 55-17, and 2005, when the Longhorns were favored by 14 and won 45-12.

“You don't want the emotions of what that game means to everybody — emotions that will be in the stadium, the intensity — to hijack the focus that it takes to have the details so we can execute at a really high level,” OU coach Brent Venables said. “Execution wins, not emotion — and not all the fans and everything else that's gonna be going.”

Two of the biggest favorites in the modern history of the series actually failed to win the game.

Older OU fans will never forget 1996 — John Blake’s first time to coach against Texas — as an upset for the ages. 

Texas was a 20 1/2-point favorite after the Sooners started the season 0-4. But, after falling behind 24-13, OU’s Jarrail Jackson returned a punt 51 yards for a touchdown, and James Allen’s 36-yard run set up the tying field goal. Another burst by Allen in overtime reached the end zone and completed an epic upset, 30-27.

And Texas fans are still enjoying the upset engineered by “Peter the Great” five years earlier. 

In 1989, its first season in more than two decades without Barry Switzer on the field, OU was favored by 17 1/2 to beat struggling Texas for a fifth year in a row. But after Mike Gaddis’ knee injury, Texas rallied behind freshman quarterback Peter Gardere in the final minutes to win 28-24. Gardere was an underdog to OU in all four of his starts, but went 4-0.

Being a double-digit favorite in this series seldom carries through on the scoreboard.

In 2015, OU was favored by anywhere from 13.5 to 17, and the Longhorns won the game 24-17.

In 2014, OU was favored by 16.5 and held on to win 31-26.

And in 2013, OU was a 14.5-point favorite and lost 36-20.

OU was also favored by double digits in 2016 (13.5) and only won 45-40, and in 2019 (11) and only won 34-27. 

In 2007, OU was a 12 1/2-point favorite and only won 28-21.

Although this game is always a toss-up, OU has won seven of the last 10 meetings, and was favored in six of those.

Just last year, OU was a 4-point dog when Dillon Gabriel rallied the Sooners with a cross-country march in the final seconds that resulted in a 34-30 Oklahoma victory.

The lesson here is that OU and Texas fans should buckle up and hold on tight — it’s the wildest ride on the midway.