Metrics Show Oklahoma is a Heavy Favorite to Win the National Championship

ESPN's FPI and Playoff Predictor reveal the Sooners are frontrunners to run the table, win the Big 12, win their first playoff game and return to the college football mountaintop.

ESPN likes Oklahoma. A lot.

That is, the network’s Football Power Index — a formula used to measure college football teams’ overall strength, probabilities and future outcomes based on past performances and future opponents — likes the Sooners.

Loves them, actually.

According to this week’s FPI and Playoff Predictor, OU is the heavy favorite nationally to win their conference, to make the College Football Playoff and to win the 2023-24 national championship.

A year after the Sooners stumbled to a 6-7 record, No. 6-ranked Oklahoma is 6-0 and is a heavy favorite to run the table with its remaining six games.

Coach Brent Venables hopes that his players can navigate the back half of the season much like they did the first half: with a hunger in their eye and a fire in their belly. Venables knows that thinking about a Big 12 title or the playoff or the program’s eighth national championship now would be folly.

OU has a game to play on Saturday against Central Florida.

“My challenge to them is our structure and our routine has got to be our compass,” Venables said. “It's got to be a sanctuary for them in how you get ready. They've got to buy into that, not get bored with that and show up every day with a mindset of developing good habits. Habits don't establish themselves. In the most critical times, in the most strenuous situations on the football field, you have to fall back on your habits and your fundamentals. I believe our guys, they understand that, they believe that, they buy into that.”

Still, it’s hard to ignore what the Sooners have done in Venables’ second season. Certainly, the math is the math.

The most recent index projects OU with a 21.9 percent chance to win the national title. That’s higher than everyone — and a lot higher than anyone not named Ohio State, which has a 19.3 percent chance. No other team has a percentage higher than 9.6 percent (Michigan).

The Sooners have 40 percent chance to win their first playoff game and get to the national title showdown. Ohio State is at 33.4 percent. No one else is above 18.5 percent (Florida State).

OU is a prohibitive favorite to return to the playoff with a 69.3 percent chance. Ohio State is second here as well with a 56.2 percent chance. Florida State’s 42.7 percent is third. Last week, OU had a 71 percent chance to make the playoff, according to the Playoff Predictor (Ohio State’s was 52 percent).

The Sooners also are a strong favorite to reel in a conference championship at 63.8 percent. That’s according to season simulations. OU ranks slightly ahead of FSU’s 61.4 percent chance to win the ACC, and well ahead of Washington’s 43 percent chance to win the Pac-12.

Even if OU doesn’t win the Big 12 championship in its final season, the Sooners have a 55 percent chance to make the CFP, according to the Playoff Predictor.

Notre Dame has the best chance to win the rest of its games at 41.7 percent, but OU is right behind at 40.4 (Florida State is next at 29.0).

The raw power index number — which measures a team's true strength on net points scale and expected point margin versus average opponent on neutral field — has Oklahoma resting comfortably at No. 2 this week behind the Buckeyes, although OU’s projected win total (including conference championship games) is 12.2, which is ahead of Florida State’s 11.8, Georgia’s 11.4 and Washington and Ohio State’s 11.3.

Looking ahead to the Sooners’ final six games, Oklahoma’ win probability numbers — their likelihood at winning each game and finishing the regular season 12-0 — is almost staggering:

• UCF: 94.2 percent
• at Kansas: 89.7 percent
• at Oklahoma State: 92.1 percent
• West Virginia: 94.8 percent
• at BYU: 94.6 percent
• TCU: 88.5 percent

For the second week in a row, OU ranks No. 1 in the FPI’s strength of record metric.