Plot Thickens on Oklahoma's Bowl Scenario as OU Climbs One Spot in CFP Rankings
Oklahoma climbed one spot in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.
But will it be enough to propel the Sooners into a New Year’s Six bowl game?
OU will learn its postseason fate on Sunday, after Saturday’s conference championship games have been played and Sunday’s CFP assignments have been decided.
The Sooners moved up one spot to No. 12 in this week’s rankings, still behind three 10-2 teams — Missouri, Penn State and Ole Miss — who also don’t play this weekend.
OU needs to be in the top 11 to get an at-large berth, and that number could become 10 “under certain circumstances,” a CFP source told AllSooners.
The CFP’s top four going into Championship Saturday is No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Washington and No. 4 Florida State — all undefeated at 12-0.
Washington plays No. 5 Oregon Saturday in the Pac-12 title game, No. 7 Texas plays Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game, and No. 8 Alabama plays Georgia in the SEC title game.
CFP rankings 1-18
CFP
OU could move up if Texas loses to No. 18 OSU (OSU would then get the Big 12’s guaranteed NY6 spot), and Alabama could conceivably fall in event of a lopsided loss to Georgia. But the Sooners shouldn’t expect to climb anyone else ahead of them pending the outcome of other games. If Michigan loses to No. 16 Iowa or FSU loses to No. 14 Louisville, it’s unlikely the Wolverines or Seminoles would fall outside the top 11, and the teams they lose to would probably jump the Sooners.
The CFP selection committee chooses the NY6 field, but is obligated to pick at-large teams ranked in the top 12 after seeding the four-team playoff field.
Only nine teams of the 84 NY6 selections since the CFP format began in 2014 have been ranked outside the top 12. The committee also locks in the highest-rated team from Group of 5 conferences.
This year’s New Year’s Six bowl games are the Cotton, Fiesta, Orange and Peach. This year's CFP semifinals are the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl.
The Orange Bowl is contracted to take an ACC team, so OU’s best chance at a NY6 at-large bid is probably the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach. But realistically, if they’re unable to move up enough in next week’s final rankings, the Sooners’ most likely bowl assignment seems to be the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio (Dec. 28) against a Pac-12 opponent — probably against 9-3 Arizona.
The Alamo is where the 2021 squad finished its season (against Oregon) after Lincoln Riley left and Bob Stoops stepped in as interim coach.
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