Ranking Oklahoma's Three Biggest Toss-Up Games for 2024

After figuring out the Sooners' three most winnable and three most losable games, here are the three that will ultimately determine whether this season is a success or failure.

Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables / Brett Patzke-USA TODAY Sports

How will No. 16-ranked Oklahoma do in Year 3 under coach Brent Venables?

Venables has talked repeatedly about the improved talent and depth across the OU roster. He’s spoken at length about how much better the defensive players who are back in 2024 have picked up his schemes. He’s gushed about new quarterback Jackson Arnold's improved decision-making, maturity and leadership.

But the stark reality is that Venables’ squad is coming off a rough finish to last year — after a 7-0 start, road losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State and a double-digit loss to Arizona in the Alamo Bowl (OU was the early favorite in all three) — and brought in 51 newcomers this year (including freshmen) to try to elevate the program.

Now, in their first year in the Southeastern Conference, the Sooners will try to improve on last year’s 10-3 finish.

It won’t be easy, but Venables has said this team will embrace the hard.

On Tuesday, Sooners On SI examined the three SEC games that are the “most winnable.” Wednesday, we looked at which three are the “most losable.”

So here are Oklahoma’s three biggest toss-up games in conference play that will either make or break the Sooners’ maiden voyage through the SEC.

1. Texas

Just mark the Red River Rivalry down as a toss-up every year.

Whether the Sooners or the Longhorns are ranked higher or favored in Vegas or actually have a better team almost never matters.

Just refer to last year, when No. 3-ranked Texas won the Big 12 for the first time in almost 15 years and made its first trip to the College Football Playoff — and still managed to lose to No. 12 Oklahoma in Dallas.

Actually, digging into the numbers, the higher-ranked team is 18-6 since 2000 — but only 6-5 since 2013.

Texas looks loaded again, coming in at No. 4 in the AP Top 25 and the AFCA Coaches Poll, while the Sooners are No. 16 in both.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers is back to drive Steve Sarkisian’s bus after improving in virtually every statistical category last season. The Longhorns have to replace a lot of NFL talent both in the receiver corps, at running back and up front, but seem to have replenished at spots with portal talent like WR Isaiah Bond and do have four starters back on a good offensive line, including All-America candidate Kelvin Banks. Losing two running backs in the preseason, including projected starter C.J. Baxter, is a setback.

On defense, Texas brings back six starters on the front seven, but losing two interior monsters like T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy to the draft will be hard to overcome. Two Arizona transfers (who beat OU in San Antonio) and Louisville’s Jermayne Lole — who committed to OU and then flipped to Texas at the last minute — bolster the line. Transfer safety Andrew Mukuba was a three-year starter at Clemson and is familiar with Venables, and linebacker Anthony Hill is a rising star.

Oklahoma doesn’t fear Texas. Danny Stutsman made that clear last year. But if the Sooners are going to have the kind of season they want, this is where it starts.

2. Missouri

Realistic fans in Columbia are still trying to figure out if Mizzou’s 2023 season was the sign of things to come or just a one-off.

Coach Eli Drinkwitz guided the Tigers to an 11-2 mark last year, which included a bowl victory over Ohio State and a top-10 ranking. Before that, Drinkwitz was 17-19 at Missouri.

Brady Cook is back at QB after a fantastic junior year — fantastic largely because he threw the football to Luther Burden, maybe the nation’s best receiver who originally committed to Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma before flipping to Mizzou. Burden is back after posting 1,212 yards and nine TDs last year. Former Sooner WR Theo Wease is back as well. Three returning starters and former Sooner Cayden Green anchor a strong o-line.

The defense is sprinkled with 4- and 5-star recruits and transfers, including freshman DE Williams Nwaneri, who was strongly considering Oklahoma before choosing Mizzou. Oklahoma native and former 4-star DT Chris McClellan, who picked Florida over OU out of high school, is now a Tiger, and Drinkwitz added transfers from Georgia, Michigan State, Miami and Clemson to bolster the new defense. The Tigers had five players drafted from the defense in April, an almost unprecedented haul. Also, coordinator Blake Baker unexpectedly took the DC job at LSU, so there’s a refit at best in Columbia under new DC Corey Batoon.

The SEC is doing everything it can to fit Missouri as a natural rival with Oklahoma — maybe none of the other traditional SEC members want to force one on the fans with a team that just joined in 2012 — because of their long history in the Big Eight/Big 12.

But it wasn’t ever really a rivalry: the Sooners lead the all-time series 67-24-5, and have won 20 of the last 22 meetings. But the Tigers — who played in the SEC title game in 2013 and 2014 and really haven’t been anywhere close since then — are better than ever at No. 11 in both preseason polls.

As previously stated, Mizzou fans can boast some recent recruiting and portal wins over the Sooners, and they’ll be more than eager to welcome their old tormentors to their new league in a “see what you’re getting into?” kind of reception. Their fan base’s hostile reputation (everyone remember the Antlers?) ensures that OU’s Nov. 9 trip to Faurot Field — right after the Sooners host Maine, and right before an open date, a tricky spot — will be one of the most challenging game day atmospheres OU sees all season. A win here would be huge for Oklahoma.

3. Tennessee

We also ranked the Vols as OU’s No. 2-most winnable game this season. We think Sooner Nation is going to show up and show out on Sept. 21, throaty and boisterous and loud and doing everything in their power to make sure the SEC knows that playing a game in Norman “just means more.”

Tennessee was 9-4 last year in Josh Heupel’s third season, and the Vols have an exciting new quarterback (Nico Iamaleava), a big-play offense and a defensive line that’s eager to tune up Jackson Arnold against a rebuilt OU offensive front.

The Sooners’ strongest competition before hosting one of the SEC’s best will be … Tulane? Houston? That step up will present its own challenge for the Oklahoma roster.

Although it’s the conference opener, and there are seven more SEC games to play afterward, this game still has something of a “make or break” feel to it.

Is Oklahoma SEC-ready? Tennessee will make sure we find out right out of the gate. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee a good season, just like a loss in the inaugural SEC game doesn’t guarantee a bad season.

But getting over that first hurdle would no doubt give Oklahoma — and its demanding fan base — a good feeling to begin its membership in the SEC.

And when playoff berths or bowl bids are handed out in December, we could easily be looking back on this game as one of the reasons for the Sooners’ postseason plans.