Ranking Oklahoma’s Three Most Winnable, Most Losable, and Most Make-or-Break SEC Games of 2024

The Sooners have one of college football's toughest schedules, but some games will be harder than others – and not for reasons you might think.

Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold / NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

The predictions for Oklahoma in 2024 have already run the gamut — and for good reason.

The Sooners have one of college football’s most daunting schedules. They’re stepping up in competition from the Big 12 to the SEC. They have a new offensive coordinator, a new defensive coordinator, a new special teams coach, a new quarterback, and an entirely new offensive line.

Other than a very manageable non-conference slate of Temple, Houston, Tulane and Maine — hey, that’s four wins — there are a multitude of unknowns ahead.

Gone are the days when the only real toss-up most years was Texas and everyone knew the Sooners could skate through the rest of the Big 12. In addition to just playing better competition in the SEC, the 2024 and 2025 schedules are comprised of opponents that went 76-29 last year (.724).

The reality is this Oklahoma team could be talented enough to go 9-3 or maybe even 10-2 this year with a few breaks. But if injuries occur (spoiler alert: they will, and already have), and if the schedule is as tough as it looks, the Sooners could easily slip to 6-6 or (gasp!) maybe even 5-7. The schedule is that rugged.

The defense should be good enough, and Jackson Arnold’s talented wide receivers should be open enough that the Sooners should beat the teams they’re supposed to beat.

That’s as optimistic as we’ll try to be in this space.

In this three-part series, Sooners on SI will try to get a handle on OU’s upcoming season by ranking the SEC games that we rate as the most winnable and the most losable, and then pick three games that will either make or break the season for Sooner Nation.

Here are Oklahoma’s three Most Winnable Games of 2024:

1. South Carolina

This one’s easy. The Gamecocks were 5-7 last year and Shane Beamer might be legit on the hot seat after going 20-18 in his first three seasons.

Offensively, USC was near the bottom of the SEC in points scored last year, and return five starters — but lose their top rusher, receivers and passer (Spencer Rattler). QB LaNorris Sellers is the projected starter at QB, but he’s a redshirt freshman. Still, he’ll improve a running game that was last in the SEC last year.

Nine portal transfers will help at the skill positions, including former Arkansas star Raheim “Rocket” Sanders.

The Gamecocks added six portal transfers in the defensive line and linebacker corps, which is expected to add punch to a defense that ranked last in the SEC in sacks and TFLs.

The only thing scary about this game for Oklahoma is the fact it comes a week after the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners did have a pretty big letdown after beating Texas last year, holding on against UCF and then losing back-to-back games at Kansas and Oklahoma State.

2. Tennessee

The Vols were 9-4 last year and Josh Heupel simply cannot wait to unleash QB Nico Iamaleava on the world. His first career start last year was a 35-0 bowl victory over defensive juggernaut Iowa. That might not bode well for an Oklahoma defense that has only faced Temple, Houston and Tulane up to that point.

Heupel, who’s 55-20 as a head coach and 27-12 in Knoxville, has what he calls his deepest team — deeper than the 2022 squad that went 11-2. That’s because the Vols are loaded at wideout (junior Squirrel White and senior Bru McCoy are back) and offensive line (seniors Cooper Mays, Javontez WSpraggins and John Campbell return).

Only two starters return on defense, but they're big: senior DTs Omari Thomas and Bryson Eason. The portal addition of a couple of former 5-stars on offense and arguably the best defensive front in the SEC, led by future first-round DE James Pearce, make this one a real challenge.

So why rank the Vols as the No. 2 most winnable game?

Read on …

3. Auburn

We rank Tennessee ahead of Auburn here because the home crowd at Memorial Stadium is going to be electric, the players are going to be out of their minds and everyone is going to be crazy for the SEC home opener when the Vols come to town.

And then comes the first road game — where the home crowd at Jordan-Hare Stadium is going to be electric and the players are going to be out of their minds and everyone is going to be crazy to welcome newcomer Oklahoma to Auburn for the very first time.

Auburn is no great shakes so far under Hugh Freeze. The Tigers were 5-7 last year and bring back six starters on offense, including QB Payton Thorne, big-play RB Jarquez Hunter, stud TE Rivaldo Fairweather (plus 5-star WR recruit Cam Coleman) and three on an experienced offensive line.

Auburn returns six starters on defense, including three linebackers, plus some nice portal additions via three transfers from the Big 12 (two from Texas). The Tigers should have a solid season.

But Brent Venables’ first two teams were 4-8 in conference games away from home and bowl games. They were also 3-7 in games decided by one score.

Oklahoma is a better football team than Auburn. But the Sooners need to be able to win on the road and win close games.

Tomorrow: Oklahoma's Three Most Losable Games