What Are Oklahoma's Playoff Chances According to ESPN's FPI?

The Sooners are among the favorites nationally to make the first 12-team College Football Playoff in 2024, according to ESPN's FPI.

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables / NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

All you can do in early August is look ahead and try to predict. 

That's what ESPN has done with its college football playoff predictor.

ESPN on Thursday released which teams its Football Power Index analytics gave at least a 10 percent chance at making the first 12-team College Football Playoff this upcoming season. Thirty teams were given those chances, including Oklahoma. 

According to the analytics, the Sooners have a 36.6 percent chance to make the CFP. Those are the 10th-best chances in the country on the list. Taking that mathematical prediction a step further, the percentage is 2.8 for OU to not only get in, but make a run through the CFP and win a national title in Year 3 under Brent Venables. 

Georgia has the best chances at a CFP appearance, according to the analytics, at 79.1 percent. Half of the top 10 teams on the list come from the SEC, including Texas, Alabama, Missouri and Tennessee ahead of OU. As a conference, The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the SEC a 53 percent chance for a conference representative to win the national title. 

These numbers are based on ESPN’s Football Power Index. These analytics are used to predict teams’ chances at not only making the CFP, but also the likelihood of a team winning its conference championship and to predict a team’s final overall record. According to ESPN, FPI is a power rating system that compares a program’s strengths compared to the average FBS team while rating offense, defense and special teams to represent points per game. Theoretically, this rating can be used to predict head-to-head matchups, thus also predicting overall records and championship percentages based on schedules and other factors.

The FPI predicted the Sooners to go 8-4 in their first season in the SEC with a 5.1 percent chance at winning the conference as a newcomer. Using that same model to rank teams, OU is the No. 8 squad in the country with a 17.2 FPI rating. Just like the playoff predictions, Georgia is at the top with a 26.8 FPI rating. 

But as these numbers scramble fans' brains and fire up the faithful, it's easy to forget young men play these games, not robots. These teams are uncontrolled variables when developing a theory. There are also unpredictable environments and influences. And not only are humans playing these games, but come December, unlike the BCS, it also won’t be a computer deciding who gets into the CFP, but a group of humans in the 12-person CFP selection committee.