AP Top 25 Paints Grim Picture for Big 12's CFP Odds
The Big 12 has had a rough football season, and its nightmare scenario could become a reality.
Oklahoma State entered the season among the favorites to win the Big 12, but along with Utah, Kansas State, Kansas and Arizona, the entire top 5 of the conference’s preseason poll will be on the outside of the Big 12 Championship in Arlington. After starting 3-3, OSU had an opportunity to pull an upset, going to Provo to match up against undefeated BYU.
The Cougars scored a go-ahead touchdown with 10 seconds left to escape with a win. BYU had another close call a few weeks later to survive against Utah. Those wins helped keep BYU unblemished and kept the Big 12 in a top 10 dominated by the Big 10 and SEC.
The Cougars’ and the Big 12’s luck changed with Kansas’ upset win against BYU on Saturday. While the College Football Playoff rankings will not come out until Tuesday, Sunday’s AP poll is not exactly encouraging.
Not only did BYU’s loss leave the Big 12 without a top 10 team, but the conference’s highest-ranked team is below the highest-ranked team of four other conferences, with Boise State now ahead of every Big 12 squad. BYU is still the conference’s top team at No. 14, followed by No. 16 Colorado, No. 21 Arizona State and No. 22 Iowa State.
Although it is bad enough that the Big 12 is on track to miss out on a first-round bye in the CFP, it could easily get worse. No. 18 Army and No. 20 Tulane lead the way in the American.
If Army could go unbeaten and win the American, there is a non-zero chance it could jump the Big 12 champs. While Tulane has two losses and would likely stay behind a Big 12 champ, there is still a possibility for the Big 12 champion to have three losses.
The Big 12’s path to the playoff is likely as simple as one of BYU or Colorado winning out, but with so much chaos already this season, that is far from guaranteed. Considering OSU nearly knocked off BYU on the road, don't be surprised if the Cowboys have a real shot to keep the Big 12 out of the playoff when they face Colorado in their season finale.
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Ivan is a sports media student at Oklahoma State University. He has covered OSU athletics since 2022 and also covers the OKC Thunder for Inside The Thunder and Thunderous Intentions.