Game Preview: No. 15 Oklahoma State vs UCF
Oklahoma State is on a roll with a five-game win streak, with three of those wins coming against ranked opponents. The Cowboys are currently sitting at number two in the Big 12 standings, and they control their destiny to make it to the conference championship. This will be the first time that the two teams play each other.
Game Information
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central Time
Channel: ESPN
Spread: Oklahoma State -2.5
Over/Under: 65.5
Key Players: Ollie Gordon, Nick Martin | John Rhys Plumlee, RJ Harvey
The Pokes have the chance to win their first Big 12 title since 2011. To guarantee an appearance, Mike Gundy and company have to win out. If they drop a game the rest of the way, they would need help getting in. If the season ended today, the Cowboys would face the Texas Longhorns in Arlington. This game has massive implications on how the season will finish for Oklahoma State. If they lose, they will be jumped by Iowa State in the Big 12 standings.
Question Marks for Oklahoma State
Defensive performance:
The defense for Oklahoma State has been up and down this season. They've had some absolutely awful performances i.e. South Alabama and Iowa State, but they've also had games where they were the strength of the team. They played extremely well against Kansas State, holding one of the top rushing attacks in the country to just 21 points.
In addition, the defense had an outstanding performance against Oklahoma last week in Bedlam, holding the number seven team in total offense to just 24 points. They made key plays in big moments, and they were the reason the Cowboys won the game.
Depending on which defense shows up, it could be anything from an absolute beatdown of UCF to a crushing defeat that takes Oklahoma State out of the Big 12 picture. The defense is starting to find a nice rhythm, and it will be interesting to see if they can continue it.
Passing Attack:
Although UCF has one of the worst rushing defenses in the country, they have the top-ranked pass defense in the Big 12. Stats do not tell the whole story, but it is still something to keep an eye on. If the Pokes are not able to get a rhythm in the passing game, it could make it difficult to run the ball, as the lack of a passing threat could lead to a stacked box.
As I stated above, one shouldn't be too concerned with how the offense will perform, and the fate of the game will lie mostly in the defense's hands. Still, everybody has a bad game once in a while, and with this game being on the road all the way in Orlando, anything can happen. Oklahoma State will have to do a good job of protecting Alan Bowman and giving him time to throw. If they can do that, the receivers will get open.
My Prediction:
Although Vegas seems to think this game will go down to the wire, I just don't see it. Oklahoma State has shown massive improvement in each phase of the game as the season has gone on, and with Ollie Gordon putting up Heisman-like numbers, I can't see a world where UCF is able to stifle the offense considering they are one of the worst rated defenses in the country ranked at 100th in total defense.
The Knights especially struggle against the run, ranked bottom five in the country in terms of rushing yards given up. I could see the option-heavy offense posing a threat to the Pokes defensively, but if the defense plays well I do not expect this game to be close.
My prediction: Oklahoma State 38-24 UCF
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