Nonconference Schedule Could Hurt Oklahoma State's College Football Playoff Hopes

The Cowboys have a high-risk, low-reward slate to begin the season.

Jan 6, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; A general view of the National Championship Trophy during media day before the College Football Playoff national championship between the Michigan Wolverines and the Washington Huskies at George R Brown Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma State has hopes to make its first College Football Playoff, but that could take a hit before Big 12 play begins.

The Cowboys’ season opener is just over a month away and they enter as a dark-horse contender for the College Football Playoff. Ranking third in the Big 12’s preseason poll, OSU is also a fierce contender to take the Big 12.

Of course, if the Cowboys can take care of business in the conference, they will earn an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff, so long as they are one of the five highest-rated conference champs. With only four power conferences, the Big 12 champion is almost a lock to make the playoff and earn a first-round bye as a top-four seed.

As one of 16 teams in the conference, winning the Big 12 is much easier said than done. Even if the Cowboys can make it to Arlington, they know better than most that there are no guarantees, having lost two of the past three title games.

READ MORE: OSU Football: Analyzing 2024 Big 12 Football Championship Odds

If OSU has a strong conference season but can’t take the Big 12, it must rely on an at-large bid. To get an at-large bid, the Cowboys will need a strong nonconference performance.

OSU’s nonconference slate this season leaves no room for error if the team needs to compete for an at-large bid. OSU opens the season against arguably the toughest opponent in the FCS, South Dakota State.

If the Cowboys can get past the Jackrabbits, they will host one of the SEC’s worst teams when Arkansas visits Stillwater. While losses in either of those games are possible, it would derail the Cowboys’ Playoff hopes early. If OSU somehow gets upset by Tulsa, it would be a South Alabama and Central Michigan level of disaster.

With matchups against Oregon and Alabama in future nonconference schedules, OSU leaves room for the quality losses discussion. However, with no opportunity for a quality win in the nonconference this season, any hiccups in the Big 12 could hurt one of the most talented teams in the Mike Gundy era.

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READ MORE: OSU Football: Weak Schedule Could Hurt Big 12 Title Chances

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