Oklahoma State's Path to the Big 12 Championship is Complicated

The Cowboys fell to 5-2 in conference, but their championship hopes are far from gone.

Oklahoma State no longer controls its destiny, but a path to the Big 12 Championship remains.

OSU’s 45-3 loss against UCF moved its record to 7-3 but, more importantly, 5-2 in conference play. Coming into Saturday’s game, OSU’s path to a Big 12 title was simple: win out.

The Cowboys’ road ahead is no longer that simple, but winning out remains a necessary goal. With a four-way tie at second place in the conference, the Cowboys' road to a Big 12 title is more complicated than ever.

OSU’s final two games of the season are against Houston on the road before a home game against BYU. Aside from the necessary task of winning out, Kansas State may hold the key to OSU’s hopes.

The likeliest scenario is Iowa State losing out and Texas winning out. That would keep Texas solidly in first place and push ISU out of second place at 5-4.

KSU sits in the second-place tie with OSU, along with Oklahoma and Iowa State. With so much variance in the final two weeks with the standings, projecting tiebreakers among three or more teams that have not all played each other is nearly impossible.

Because KSU does not play OU in the regular season, a three-way tie between those two teams and OSU at 7-2 at the end of the season could end without OSU in Arlington. That tiebreaker would go down to the next common opponent in the standings.

Of the other current 5-2 or 4-3 teams, Iowa State is the only possible common opponent before assessing teams as a group. If that happens, then OSU would be eliminated, and the others would go to a two-way tie. Beyond that, there are too many scenarios to assess.

But in the unlikely scenario that ISU wins out against Texas and KSU, OSU could be in a four-way tie for first place with ISU, Texas and OU if both Oklahoma teams also win out. If that occurs, OSU will head to the Big 12 Championship against Texas because Kansas is the next highest-placed common opponent.

Overall, actually projecting the Big 12 Championship matchup is basically impossible. But OSU’s hopes depend strictly on winning out and getting the rest of the games to fall into place perfectly.

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