The Early Prediction: Ole Miss Basketball vs. Iowa State in NCAA Tournament

Chris Beard and the Rebels continue preparation for a Round of 32 clash against the Cyclones, early predictions are in.

Zack Nagy | Mar 22, 2025

Mississippi head coach Chris Beard works with his team against Auburn during the second half of a Southeastern Conference tournament quarterfinal game at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., Friday, March 14, 2025. / Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In this story:

The No. 6 seeded Ole Miss Rebels will take on the Iowa State Cyclones in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday night with a chance to reach the Sweet 16.

Sunday's clash will tipoff at 6:45 p.m. CT in the Fiserv Forum with all eyes on Chris Beard's Rebels looking to make a statement against a challenging foe.

The Rebels are fresh off of an impressive First Round victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels with the stage set for a Round of 32 matchup in Milwaukee.

"Our word is poise, stone-faced, don’t get too high or too low. We have a veteran team. Sean and Juju have both played in the NCAA Tournament before," Beard said on Friday.

"I think that showed early. They did a great job getting some of their teammates that haven’t played in this tournament before prepared."

The Preview: No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones

The Start Time and How to Watch:

Start Time: 6:45 p.m. CT on March 23
Channel: TruTV
Location: Milwaukee (Wisc.)

The Current Betting Lines: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Iowa State Cyclones

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Spread:
- Ole Miss: (+5.5)
- Iowa State: (-5.5)

Moneyline:
- Ole Miss: (+180)
- Iowa State: (-218)

Over/Under: 145.5 (-110)

The Ole Miss Rebels will enter the clash in Milwaukee as 5.5-point underdogs with Vegas favoring the Iowa State Cyclones following impressive Round 1 victory.

Chris Beard's Take: Tough Task Ahead

"We set up every tournament, four-team tournament. We came here to win two games. It’s going to be challenging. Our next opponent is one of the best teams in college basketball.

"For our players, we’ve got so many seniors, guys fourth, fifth year in college basketball that have literally checked every box in their careers. Several of them hasn’t participated in the NCAA Tournament. We felt that pressure and urgency all the way back from the summer, through our non-conference schedule. To get here, we’re really happy to be here.

"Now the message is, hey, our story isn’t that we made the NCAA Tournament. Let’s make a run in this tournament. Really, really pleased and happy for our seniors."

The Early Predictions: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Iowa State Cyclones

ESPN BPI Predictor: Iowa State
ESPN BPI Predicted Point Differential: 5.5
ESPN BPI Win Probability (Iowa State): 70.8%
ESPN BPI Win Probability (Ole Miss): 29.2%
BPI Matchup Quality: 88.1

What is the ESPN Basketball Power Index?

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is," according to ESPN.

"Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."