The Expert Prediction: Ole Miss Basketball vs. North Carolina Tar Heels in Tourney

The Rebels will open NCAA Tournament play on Friday, set to square off against the Tar Heels.

Zack Nagy | Mar 20, 2025

Mar 8, 2025; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Mississippi Rebels forward Jaemyn Brakefield (4) looks to pass against the Florida Gators during the first half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

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Ole Miss Rebels

The No. 6 seeded Ole Miss Rebels will open NCAA Tournament play on Friday afternoon in a First Round clash against No. 11 North Carolina in Milwaukee (Wisc.).

Chris Beard's crew hopped on a flight on Wednesday to make their way up North with a pivotal contest against the Tar Heels inching closer.

With tipoff roughly 24 hours away, the expert predictions have been logged by multiple outlets.

Are the computer models favoring the Rebels? Will North Carolina have the edge come Friday afternoon in the Fiserv Forum?

A look into the game information for Friday and the expert picks.

How to Watch: Ole Miss Rebels vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Start Time: 4:05 p.m. ET, March 21
Channel: TNT
Location: Milwaukee (Wisc.)

ESPN's Prediction: Ole Miss Rebels vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

ESPN Analytics Predictor: North Carolina
BPI Predicted Point Differential: 1.6
Ole Miss Win Probability: 43.7%
North Carolina Win Probability: 56.3%
BPI Matchup Quality: 87.0

What is the ESPN Basketball Power Index?

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is," according to ESPN.

"Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."

KenPom's Take:

KenPom Predicted Final Score: Ole Miss 78, North Carolina 77
KenPom Win Probability [Ole Miss]: 54%

The Full First Round Schedule: NCAA Tournament Edition

*All times Eastern (ET)*

Thursday, March 20 (First Round/Round of 64)

(8) Louisville vs. (9) Creighton, 12:15 p.m. | CBS
(4) Purdue vs. (13) High Point, 12:40 p.m. | truTV
(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Montana, 1:30 p.m. | TNT
(1) Houston vs. (16) SIU Edwardsville, 2 p.m. | TBS
(1) Auburn vs. (16) Alabama State, 2:50 p.m. | CBS
(5) Clemson vs. (12) McNeese, 3:15 p.m. | truTV
(6) BYU vs. (11) VCU, 4:05 p.m. | TNT
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Georgia, 4:35 p.m. | TBS
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Wofford, 6:50 p.m. | TNT
(7) Kansas vs. (10) Arkansas, 7:10 p.m. | CBS
(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Yale, 7:25 p.m. | TBS
(6) Missouri vs. (11) Drake, 7:35 p.m. | truTV
(7) UCLA vs. (10) Utah State, 9:25 p.m. | TNT
(2) St. John's vs. (15) Omaha, 9:45 p.m. | CBS
(5) Michigan vs. (12) UC San Diego, 10 p.m. | TBS
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) UNC Wilmington, 10:10 p.m. | truTV

Friday, March 21 (First Round/Round of 64)

(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Baylor, 12:15 p.m. | CBS
(2) Alabama vs. (15) Robert Morris, 12:40 p.m. | truTV
(3) Iowa State vs. (14) Lipscomb, 1:30 p.m. | TNT
(5) Memphis vs. (12) Colorado State, 2 p.m. | TBS
(1) Duke vs. (16) Mount St. Mary's/American, 2:50 p.m. | CBS
(7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Vanderbilt, 3:15 p.m. | truTV
(6) Ole Miss vs. (11) North Carolina, 4:05 p.m. | TNT
(4) Maryland vs. (13) Grand Canyon, 4:35 p.m. | TBS
(1) Florida vs. (16) Norfolk State, 6:50 p.m. | TNT
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Troy, 7:10 p.m. | CBS
(7) Marquette vs. (10) New Mexico, 7:25 p.m. | TBS
(4) Arizona vs. (13) Akron, 7:35 p.m. | truTV
(8) UConn vs. (9) Oklahoma, 9:25 p.m. | TNT
(6) Illinois vs. (11) Xavier/Texas, 9:45 p.m. | TNT
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Bryant, 10 p.m. | TBS
(5) Oregon vs. (12) Liberty, 10:10 p.m. | truTV

(Schedule and times courtesy of the NCAA.)