Ole Miss Football SP+ History Paints a Tragically Beautiful Image of Life as an Ole Miss Fan

ESPN's Bill Connelly, founder of the S&P+ (now SP+) data analysis of college football, released some Ole Miss football charts that were both shocking and predictable, both beautiful and hideous and honestly maybe the closest thing to an all-encompassing embodiment of what it's like to be an Ole Miss fan.

A few times a year an image will circulate on the internet that captures one's attention for hours. This is maybe the nerdiest of those times.

ESPN's Bill Connelly, founder of the S&P+ (now SP+) data analysis of college football, released some Ole Miss football charts that were both shocking and predictable, both beautiful and hideous and honestly maybe the closest thing to an all-encompassing  embodiment of what it's like to be an Ole Miss fan. 

Image via. EPSN's Bill Connelly, Twitter

It's constant ups-and-downs. It's peaks as high as Everest followed by trips to Death Valley. A lot of programs have these sorts of highs and lows, but what's almost tragically special and unique to Ole Miss is they seem to happen in back-to-back-to-back years.

It's constant oscillation – as soon as you can get excited about the future, it seems like the program itself (and maybe sometimes the NCAA) sticks their hand right down your throat and rips your heart right out without any sort of anesthesia. 

The Johnny Vaught Era is beautiful. A 190–61–12 record with 11 years ranking inside the top-10% of college football. Then mediocrity arrived. Pure, unbridled 30-70th percentile mediocrity for quite literally two decades. 

But the crazy part of that mediocrity is that wild oscillation – a 71st percentile year in 1986 followed by a 28th percentile team in 1987 was simply normal.  and that never really stopped. 

The 2008-09 peaks under Houston Nutt (back-to-back 9-4 years) followed by the 2011 tragedy and the entrance of Hugh Freeze. Guess what? More peaks and then the 2019 valley. It's been tough.

Image via. EPSN's Bill Connelly, Twitter

But it's not all bad. The above second graph shows just how special those Rebel teams under Freeze were, before that unfortunate demise.

For at least a few years, it was so balanced, so consistent. In 2014 and 2015, it wasn't just the offense under Bo Wallace and Chad Kelly – the defense was actually better by SP+ than the offense, consistently among the top-20% of college football. That defense fell off precipitously from 2016-18, even while the offense was still there. 

Ole Miss had a solid pass rush and randomly defended the run well. That was enough for improvement to 42nd in Def. SP+. The LB corps and secondary should be decent, though there's turnover up front.

Also, I kinda see a landshark. pic.twitter.com/UPiekr9ffg

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) July 27, 2020

There's more to that Bill Connelly Twitter thread, including a lot more graphs stemming from the 2019 season that you can see above if you're a nerd like me. 

But the last thing to really touch on moving forward, looking into 2020, is the SP+ projections for the Rebel team. 

Connelly pegs the Rebels at a 74.7-percent chance of making a bowl game. In 54.5-percent of his simulations, Ole Miss finishes with exactly six or seven wins. In 19.2-percent of the simulations, they finish with eight or nine wins. Of course, this is assuming a full-slate of 12 games played for the season, which seems semi unlikely at this point. 

Will Lane Kiffin bring back that prior consistency? Time will tell. Would Ole Miss fans rather have back-to-back 10-2 and 4-8 seasons rather than a consistent 7-5 or 8-4? That would probably depend on who you ask.

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