Is Rebels RB Quinshon Judkins Favorite To Win SEC Offensive Player Of The Year?
Quinshon Judkins has his sights set on a weekend getaway to New York City in early December as a Heisman finalist. He'll have an out-of-left field chance to represent Ole Miss in the Big Apple at 30-1 odds, but the sophomore could reach a few more realistic goals entering August.
With SEC Media Days right around the corner, preseason awards will be handed out to players likely ready for a breakout year. Last season, few doubted that Alabama's Bryce Young wouldn't live up to expectations coming off his Heisman season, naming him first-team All-SEC quarterback.
Fewer believed that Judkins, a three-star freshman from Pike Road, Ala., would lead the conference in rushing yards with 1,567, and be named Freshman of the Year honors. Then again, it was hard imagining Judkins' stardom at the time since the Rebels had just landed former top-ranked running back Zach Evans from the transfer portal.
Judkins is a household name in the conference entering the four-day frenzy in Nashville. He's going to be the one player defensive coordinator's circle on film when trying to game plan. Every tailback in the conference — perhaps the country — will be paying attention to his stat line to see how far off they are from surpassing the agile ankle breaker who finished with eight 100-plus yard outings.
Preseason teams won't be released until after media days conclude on July 20. Judkins should be a lock as the first-team running back, given that he's the leading returning rusher.
Will he be the betting favorite to win SEC Offensive Player of the Year? Here's where the caveats start to pile up against the sophomore entering fall camp.
No one's saying Judkins can't take home the title given to the conference's "best" player, but recency bias won't do him any favors. Tennessee's Hendon Hooker won the title last season and Young the year before. Auburn's Kerryon Johnson was the last running back to win the award in 2017, and only four have taken the crown since 2010.
It's a quarterback-driven award. On top of that, making it to the Heisman ceremony usually boosts one's odds. Young, DeVonta Smith, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagoviloa, Derrick Henry, Trey Mason, Amari Cooper, Johnny Manziel, Trent Richardson, and Cam Newton all headed to New York the year they won. Six were handed college football's highest honor in the process, making the latter award obsolete.
Among those in the conference, Judkins has the ninth-best odds to win the award, trailing LSU's Jayden Daniels, Georgia's Carson Beck, Tennessee's Joe Milton, Texas A&M's Conner Weigman, Arkansas's KJ Jefferson, South Carolina's Spencer Rattler Alabama's Ty Buchner, and Georgia's Brock Bowers. Seven of the eight listed are quarterbacks, and Bowers just won the John Mackey Award.
A player's roster impact factors into the decision as well. Judkins might be more influential to the Rebels' success than Jaxson Dart or Spencer Sanders due to his consistency on the ground. There's also no competition when it comes to deciding who sees action with the first-team offense, unlike quarterback.
Daniels, who helped LSU nab its first 10-win season under Brian Kelly, shares the spotlight with a revamped defense led by likely Defensive Player of the Year favorite and wunderkind tackler Harold Perkins. Jefferson possesses all the tools to be the conference's top quarterback, but he's splitting reps with Raheim Sanders. No one knows who's playing quarterback in Tuscaloosa, and Beck could just be along for the ride in Athens.
Does this give Judkins an edge in the voting process? Not entirely. Another factor in winning OPOY has been team record. Darren McFadden was the award's last winner to play for a team with less than 10 regular season wins back in 2007. Hooker, who suffered a torn ACL in late November, is one of four players bestowed the honor without playing in the SEC Championship.
Ole Miss' schedule is tougher than week-old jerky that's been sun-kissed on a summer day in July. The Rebels travel to New Orleans, Tuscaloosa, and Athens to take on three opponents that finished last season ranked in the AP Poll's top 10. After Week 1's matchup against Mercer, there isn't a pause in the gauntlet until Week 7 with the bye.
After that, things kick back up with games against Auburn, Texas A&M, and Georgia. And don't think for a second that Mississippi State won't be swinging its sword in the Egg Bowl in memory of everyone's favorite pirate Mike Leach.
If Judkins can dominate individually, voters may give him the nod over others regardless of record or standings. He averaged over 6.0 yards per carry five times last season. Who's to say that can't happen again?
It's too early to declare an award winner, but expect Judkins to be at the head of the pack entering media days. An early breakout game could push his lead by several steps at the season's midway point.
A strong ending could have him miles ahead of others when crossing the finish line, but that's a story for another day.
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