Can Rebels RB Quinshon Judkins Lead NCAA On Ground In 2023?

Nine freshmen running backs eclipsed over 1,500 yards in Year 1 since 2000. Will Quinshon Judkins be one of three players to surpass the run total in Year 2?

Sophomore slumps are bound to come in college football, but an elite few can evade any setbacks regardless of the situation. The only problem? No one has the answer to the question of regression entering the summer. 

Will Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins be one of the lucky few to avoid the dreaded second-year decline? 

Judkins shot out of a cannon in 2022 as a three-star freshman from Pike Road, Ala. Former TCU tailback Zach Evans was expected to be the feature back for Lane Kiffin's offense, but by midseason, the Rebels were working with a duo rather than a sideshow and headliner. 

Judkins rattled off eight 100-plus yard performances on the ground, helping Ole Miss finish 8-5 in 2023. He averaged 5.7 yards per play and led all SEC runners in touchdowns with 16. Judkins also joined an elite group of running backs, becoming the ninth freshman in league history to rush for 1,500 yards in a single season since 2000. 

"I always think of players we've coached before and I feel like Reggie Bush was that ‒ he had a good freshman year and then (in his second year) you could do all this other stuff with him," Kiffin said of Judkins in April. 

Nine tailbacks crossed a threshold that seemed like a dream when entering college as an 18-year-old. Once goals are accomplished, expectations only seem to rise. And while Judkins might be the conference's top rusher on paper, history has a way of putting pressure on even the cleanest of prospects. 

Since 2000, only one running back finished with more than 1,500 yards and averaged more than yards after contact in their sophomore season. Jonathan Taylor took the Big Ten by storm when he rushed for 1,977 yards and 6.6 yards per play at Wisconsin in 2017. A year later, he became one of 35 players to surpass 2,000 yards in a single season. Taylor also averaged .5 yards (6.6:7.1) more in 2018. 

San Diego State's Ronnie Hillman upped his rushing total in 2011, going from 1,532 yards to 1,711. In contrast, his touchdown total increased by two scores, his yards per play diminished by .3 yards. 

The seven remaining running backs failed to duplicate their success after breakout freshmen campaigns. The reasonings, however, varied based on situations. Prospects like Georgia's Nick Chubb, Boston College's AJ Dillon and Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson suffered injuries that forced them to miss time. 

Pitt's Dion Lewis, Oklahoma's Samjae Perine and Western Michigan's Jarvion Franklin were at the mercy of offensive personnel concepts. The Panthers and Sooners went to pass-heavy packages, thus limiting the reps in the run game. Franklin began splitting reps in the Broncos' backfield, thus limiting his touches as a sophomore. 

This isn't to say Judkins can't be the outlier to make history. Evans is now in the NFL, thus leading to more chances for up Judkins' rep total. Kiffin's offense also has been predicated on finding success on the ground. Since 2020, Ole Miss has ranked inside the top 30 of rushing offense, averaging no less than 210 yards per game. 

Scheduling matters as well. Last season, Judkins faced one top-25 run defense and three units ranked in the top 50. Troy, ranked 24th defending the run, held him to under 100 yards, though Evans led the team in carries (20) and yards per play (6.5) in a 28-10 win. 

Alabama and LSU, on paper, upgraded their front sevens. Maason Smith, LSU's top defensive tackle, suffered a torn ACL in Week 1's loss over Florida State and is back at full strength. The Tide lost DJ Dale and Byron Young to the NFL draft, but returned players Jaheim Oatis, Jamil Burroughs, and Tim Smith. 

Texas A&M's defensive line couldn't stop water from breaking through its barriers, but a year older and wiser could change the program's viewpoint. The Aggies were aggressive in 2022 by adding countless five-star defensive linemen as part of their record-setting recruiting class. 

Programs like Auburn, Arkansas and Mississippi State feature talent in their trenches, but only time will tell which way they'll learn on gamedays. And while Tulane made headlines in 2022 after upsetting USC in the Cotton Bowl, the Green Wave might have struggles containing a player like Judkins. 

Even if Judkins can handle build off a successful first year, the competition of running backs fighting for the top spot. Arkansas returns Rahiem "Rocket" Sanders, who barely trailed Judkins in the SEC for total rushing yards. Blake Corum returned to Michigan for his senior season in hopes of winning a national title. And other programs feature prospects with game-changing speed like Wisconsin's Braelon Allen, Clemson's Will Shipley and Penn State's Nick Singleton. 

Anything can happen in Year 2 for Judkins, including regression or resurgence. Kiffin sees similarities between his sophomore in Oxford and a kid who became the face of college football while serving as USC's offensive coordinator. 

Judkins might not be the next Reggie Bush, but he could be the first version of himself. That's a scary thought process in itself. 

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