REALIGNMENT: 3 Options for the Pac-12 Conference
Sometimes, sports is more than fun & games. Sometimes it feels like philosophy.
It was Nietzsche who first said "Out of life's school of war, what doesn't kill me, makes me stronger", an aphorism that has found applications across every walk of life, including conference realignment.
Three months ago, Mountain West schools Colorado State, Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State, and San Diego State each joined Oregon State & Washington State in the new Pac-12 Conference. Their departure - an exodus of the top programs in the MWC on the field of play, and off of it - seemingly spelled doom for the Mountain West.
First reported by Action Network's Brett McMurphy and confirmed by On3 and The Athletic, the Mountain West has extended an invitation to Northern Illinois, and the current MAC member school is expected to accept that invitation. At some point this weekend, Northern Illinois will become the Mountain West's ninth full member and tenth overall member school, firmly thrusting it above the 8 full member requirement to remain a Division I FCS-level conference.
The assured survival of the Mountain West removes the possibility of adding other Mountain West members like Air Force and UNLV. So what's next for the Pac-12?
1. Look southeast - to Texas State, Tulane, and Memphis
Texas State is a program on the rise, making the jump to NCAA Division I via the old Western Athletic Conference (WAC) in 2012 and the Sun Belt in 2013. Since that arrival they've set attendance records, and recently earned back-to-back bowl victories in 2023 & 2024. In football rich Texas, the hope is that Texas State has growth potential.
Memphis and Tulane have grown plenty, and they know it. Reportedly, these schools spurned the Pac-12's overtures this past fall, but large contingents of Memphis and Tulane fans were eager to join the conference. If the Pac-12 wins its lawsuit versus the Mountain West, and is freed of millions of dollars owed to the Mountain West, I think Memphis and Tulane would accept a windfall from the Pac-12.
2. Look in your backyard - to Sacramento State
The Hornets are a minnow, for now. But I see the crown jewel of the Pac-12 Conference. The most important factor in realignment is media markets: larger markets, meaning cities/regions with more TV viewers, generate more advertising revenue. More advertising revenue means television networks place a higher value on that market, and offer conferences more money for their broadcasting rights.
Here's why Sacramento State is so valuable: if the Pac-12 added Sacramento State tomorrow, that means games in the Sacramento media market; a market that would immediately dwarf every other media market in the conference. Sacramento is the nation's 20th largest. San Diego is the 30th largest. Fresno is 55th, Spokane is 66th, and Boise is 98th. The conference needs a larger media footprint, and Sacramento State would help accomplish that.
3. Look east - to the MAC
With Northern Illinois joining the Mountain West, the natural follow-up question is why? What is wrong with the MAC? If MAC schools are looking for greener pastures, the Pac-12 could covet schools like Akron (Cleveland, media market #19), Buffalo (media market #54), and Toledo (media market #81).
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Matt fell in love with radio during his college days at Oregon Tech, and pursued a nine year career in sports broadcasting with Klamath Falls' and Medford's highest-rated sports radio stations. He currently lives in McMinnville wine country and is excited to talk about the Beavers again.