Updated College Football Playoff Odds: Oregon Ducks Dropping?

After the Oregon Ducks' lackluster performance in a 24-14 victory over the Idaho Vandals, doubts about the Ducks football team arose across fans and media. How did it affect their chances at securing a spot in the College Football Playoff?
Fans stop to take photos with the College Football National Championship trophy at Meijer in Ypsilanti, Mich. on Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024. The trophy is going on a tour for fans to see presented by Dr. Pepper.
Fans stop to take photos with the College Football National Championship trophy at Meijer in Ypsilanti, Mich. on Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024. The trophy is going on a tour for fans to see presented by Dr. Pepper. / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY NETWORK

Oregon Ducks coach Dan Lanning and the rest of his staff assembled a talented team this offseason through the transfer portal and on the high school recruiting front. The expectations were through the roof, but a disappointing first week for the Oregon Ducks slightly affected their chances at making the College Football Playoff according to the oddsmakers.

Oregon's odds took a slight dip to -310 to make the College Football Playoff, good for fourth best in the country according to FanDuel. Notre Dame (-410), Georgia (-600) and Ohio State are at the top (-750).

It seems unlikely to happen unless a complete meltdown occurs, but Oregon has +240 odds to miss the College Football Playoffs entirely. The Big Ten should have multiple programs seeded in the newly revamped bracket that contains 12 teams now.

Fans stop to take photos with the College Football National Championship trophy at Meijer in Ypsilanti, Mich
Fans stop to take photos with the College Football National Championship trophy at Meijer in Ypsilanti, Mich. on Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024. The trophy is going on a tour for fans to see presented by Dr. Pepper. / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY NETWORK

The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive the top four seeds and a first-round bye straight to the quarterfinals. The power four conference champions from the Southeastern Conference, Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference and Atlantic Coast Conference will most likely receive byes. The fifth seed will be filled out by the next highest-ranked conference champion, and the seven-highest ranked teams in the College Football rankings will then fill out the final spots.

Here is how the seeds will matchup in the first round as the higher-seeded program will host.

  • No. 5 vs. No. 12
  • No. 6 vs. No. 11
  • No. 7 vs. No. 10
  • No. 8 vs. No. 9

The College Football Playoff committee consists of one current athletic director from each of the five "major" conferences (Atlantic Coast Conference, Big Ten Conference , Big 12 Conference, Southeastern Conference and Pac-12 Conference). Other members that fill out the selection committee are former coaches, players, athletic directors and administrators as well as a retired member of the media.

Oregon Ducks linebacker Bryce Boettcher brings down Idaho Vandals wide receiver Mark Hamper
Oregon Ducks linebacker Bryce Boettcher brings down Idaho Vandals wide receiver Mark Hamper as the Oregon Ducks host the Idaho Vandals Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Ducks have +700 odds to be the last team standing, hoisting the College Football Playoff National Championship trophy. Those odds are tied for the third best with Texas (+700). Ohio State is at No. 2 with +450 and Georgia is No. 1 with +270.

Oregon's next opportunity to get in the win column comes against the Boise State Broncos at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, Sept 7 at 7 p.m. PDT. The Broncos are led by running back Ashton Jeanty who scored six rushing touchdowns on 267 yards in the victory over Georgia Southern, 56-45.

Jeanty is now gaining recognition for being a favorite to win the Heisman Trophy after the first victory in his junior campaign, but Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel has been dealing with that talk since he decided to come to school in Eugene. That pressure is nothing new for him.

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Arden Cravalho
ARDEN CRAVALHO

Arden Cravalho has been covering Oregon football and basketball for Sports Illustrated's Oregon site since June 2024. Arden has been writing extensively about college athletics beginning in 2018. His other work can be seen on "The Slipper Still Fits" at SB Nation. Arden is a graduate of Gonzaga University and brings a deep understanding of college sports to his writing. Residing in San Francisco, CA, Arden continues to follow his passion for college sports with a focus on the Ducks. His experience and dedication to covering Oregon's athletic programs are evident in his insightful articles and analysis