Big Ten Title Game Tiebreaker Scenarios: Undefeated Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, Odd Man Out?

The Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Indiana Hoosiers are all tied at the top of the Big Ten Standings. What would the Big Ten Championship game tiebreaker be if all three finished the year undefeated? Can the Ducks finish 12-0 this season and miss the Big Ten championship game?

Jul 25, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The No. 1 Oregon Ducks beat the Purdue Boilermakers 35-0 on Friday night to improve their record to 4-0 in Big Ten play and 7-0 overall. However, the undefeated Ducks have some company in the Big Ten Conference. It’s even a possibility that the Ducks could go 12-0 this season and miss the Big Ten Championship Game. 

How could something so crazy happen?

Three Undefeated Teams Remain in the Big Ten

Oct 18, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Jay Harris (22) celebrates scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

After Week 8, three teams in the Big Ten remain undefeated, the Oregon Ducks, No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions and No. 13 Indiana Hoosiers. Oregon and Indiana are each 7-0 overall and 4-0 in conference play while Penn State is 6-0 overall and 3-0 in Big Ten play.

Oregon and Penn State came into the season with high expectations, but Indiana has been one of the biggest surprises in the nation. The Hoosiers were coming off a disastrous 3-9 season, but first-year coach Curt Cignetti has turned things around immediately. 

Indiana's Elijah Sarratt (13) celebrates his touchdown with Trey Wedig (75) during the Indiana versus Nebraska football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon and Penn State have flexed their muscles in most of their wins, but have also shown an ability to overcome adversity. The Ducks opened up the season with two close wins over Idaho and No. 17 Boise State. Then in Week 7, they had their statement win, beating No. 4 Ohio State 32-31 in a thriller. 

Penn State was down multiple touchdowns on the road against the USC Trojans but managed to rally for a 33-30 overtime win. Penn State also got down 7-0 early to No. 20 Illinois but dominated the rest of the way to win 21-7.

None of these three teams plays each other during the regular season, opening up the path for all three to finish the season undefeated in Big Ten play. If that's the case, three teams will be shooting for two spots in the Big Ten championship game.

Potential Tiebreaking Scenarios

Oct 12, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions defensive tackle Dvon J-Thomas (91) celebrates after defeating the USC Trojans at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The tiebreaking scenarios can get very chaotic for the Big Ten Championship game, which is at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Dec 7.

Obviously, only two Big Ten teams will play in the Big Ten title game and vie for the first-round bye in the College Football playoff. What are the tiebreaking scenarios if all three teams remain undefeated?

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana do not play each other.

The scenarios get messy after that. Here is the full list from the Big Ten:

1. Head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
2. Record against all common conference opponents.
3. Record against common opponents with the best conference record
4. Best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents
5. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
6. Random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

If Penn State, Oregon, and Indiana win out, then tiebreaker solution four seems the most likely. The first three tiebreaker solutions would not apply if all three teams won every game of the season. If so, the Big Ten Championship game would be decided by a determination of the team's strength of schedule in conference play or the "best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents."

In which case, Oregon's win over Ohio State becomes even more important as the Ducks handed Ohio State their only loss (so far) of the season. The Ducks' next game against Illinois (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) would also help their cumulative conference winning percentage.

If that doesn't work, there's a chance that tiebreaker comes down to a third-party analytics service or a random draw. Will it come down to that? Probably not. One thing is for certain, Big Ten football will be highly entertaining down the stretch.

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