College Football Playoff Prediction: Dan Lanning's Oregon Ducks vs. Kirby Smart's Georgia?

The No. 1 Oregon Ducks' College Football Playoff prediction has the Ducks as the top seed in the projection. Could Dan Lanning's Ducks face Kirby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs in the championship?

Oct 18, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Jay Harris (22) strong arms Purdue Boilermakers linebacker Kydran Jenkins (4) to score a touchdown during the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

With the No. 1 Oregon Ducks rising to the top spot in the AP Poll following their 35-0 historic shutout against the Purdue Boilermakers, at what status will Oregon end their regular season on, will they win the Big Ten Championship, and how will the rest of the playoffs look compared to Oregon’s spot in the mix?

This year, college football is introducing a new format to the playoffs by allowing 12 teams to compete for the crown instead of the regular four. The five conference champions from the Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, Southeastern Conference, Atlantic Coast Conference, and one group five conference will all receive automatic bids with the top four champions winning a bye to the next round. The other champion and seven other teams will all battle it out to advance. 

Needless to say, this format is very different from the playoffs of old college football, which included the top four best performing teams battling it out in a No.1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 outline. This new setup allows different teams to enter the mix and get a shot at a title they’d otherwise not be able to achieve. This format also allows great-performing teams to still have a playoff berth after a loss, so there’s a tad bit more wiggle room for football goliaths that beat each other up in stacked conferences.

Here’s how the first round of games will look:

• No. 5 vs. No. 12
• No. 6 vs. No. 11
• No. 7 vs. No. 10
• No. 8 vs. No. 9

After the first round, the teams will face off in New Year's six bowls where the conference winners will be the opponents against whoever makes it past week one.

Oct 18, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Firstly, let’s look at Oregon’s remaining schedule. The most likely areas for loss here are the Ducks’ traveling to Michigan on Nov. 2, on the road at Wisconsin on Nov. 16, and welcoming Washington to Autzen Stadium on Nov. 30. If Oregon sustains one loss, their current resume of beating No. 4 Ohio State and No. 17 Boise State with Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty can help them persist in the playoff conversation.

Now, let’s look at who’s currently still undefeated. No. 1 Oregon, No. 3 Penn State, No. 6 Miami, No. 10 Iowa State, No. 11 BYU, No. 13 Indiana, No. 29 Pittsburgh, No. 23 Army, and No. 24 Navy are all currently ranked and without a loss. Due to the strength of each program’s schedule, Navy, Army, Pittsburgh, and Indiana are all long-shots to enter the playoffs, but not entirely unlikely.

For conference champions, it’s very likely to see a Big Ten championship game with a combination featuring either Oregon, Penn State, or Ohio State. The Big 12’s championship game will likely include Iowa State and BYU. As for the ACC, Miami and Clemson are the most likely matchup for their title. In SEC country, Texas and Georgia will likely meet again for a shot at the conference champion. Representing the final fifth conference will likely be Boise State for the Mountain West Conference if they can beat UNLV.

So here’s the current 12-team playoff prediction:

Round One:

No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Texas

No. 11 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Ohio State

No. 10 Tennessee vs. No. 7 Penn State

No. 9 Clemson vs. No. 8 Indiana

Conference Champions:

1. Oregon (Big Ten)

2. Georgia (SEC)

3. Miami (ACC)

4. BYU (Big 12)

Fifth Champion (First Round): Boise State (Mountain West)

Oregon is on a run to be able to win the Big Ten Championship, and has already proven they can win over Ohio State with their 32-31 victory during week seven. Penn State looks strong after their comeback win against USC, but will face Ohio State at home in November. Which team wins that match determines which team faces Oregon in the Big Ten Championship.

Especially during their current upswing of game performances, Oregon has a solid chance to make an impact in this years’ new era playoffs.

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