College Football Rankings: How Far Will Oregon Drop in AP Poll After Ugly Idaho Game?

Breaking down how the No. 3 Oregon Ducks Football team will stack up nationally after barely beating the Idaho Vandals 24-14. The AP Top-25 Poll will be released on Tuesday, September 3rd. We predict the Ducks could fall out of the top five.

Aug 31, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) arrives with the team before the game against the Idaho Vandals at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports / Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports

EUGENE - The No. 3 Oregon Ducks squeaked by the Idaho Vandals with a 24-14 win. Safe to say that wasn’t the debut game from Oregon Football that Duck fans were expecting. Oregon’s interior offensive line crumbled to pressure, the Ducks weren’t able to get their run game going to it’s usual efficiency, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel stuck with short passes combined with very few runs himself. Overall, this game was a lot closer than many expected. Even with the Ducks squeaking out the win, many fans and experts alike are left scratching their heads.

If you look on paper, Oregon’s play versus Idaho has some highlights. The Ducks have more than double the total yards and 21 more first downs than the Vandals. Oregon even dominated in time of possession with roughly 39 minutes compared to Idaho’s around 20 minutes. That’s not to mention quarterback Dillon Gabriel surpassed 1,500 career passing yards and this game alone he racked up 380 yards, two touchdowns, and went 41 for 49 passing attempts.

Oregon Ducks wide receiver Tez Johnson picks up yards as the Oregon Ducks host the Idaho Vandals Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

However, this game was sloppily played and you can easily see that in the eight penalties Oregon garnered that cost them 60 yards. They went one and three for fourth downs, with a few risky conversions in Oregon territory. Hitting again on the offensive line, the trenches for Oregon allowed 4 sacks. Compare this to last year, when the offensive line only allowed five sacks all season, and you’ll realize why this game felt more like a warning than a win.

These statistics harken back to what former Alabama coach Nick Saban said about Oregon during the week one College Gameday episode before kick-off.

“Is [Dillon Gabriel] going to provide the leadership? He certainly has the talent,” Saban said. “But the big question for Oregon is going to be, not going to be their skill because they have great skill guys is how do they match up up front in the Big Ten - their offensive linemen, their defensive linemen and that will be the tell-tale sign as to whether they can have success consistently or not.”

Oregon linemen hold the line during a point after kick as the Oregon Ducks host the Idaho Vandals Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

So, now Oregon is at the mercy of the AP Poll releasing this Tuesday. Many are expecting the Ducks to fall due to their performance, but how far will their ranking tumble from their current No. 3 spot?

First off, for those who may be new, the AP Poll is decided on by a team of 62 sports journalists across the nation representing a litany of different programs. These 62 voters select their top 25 teams in the nation for that week. After receiving all the ballots, each ranked team is given a certain amount of points based on where these journalists put them on the lineup (a first selection will receive 25 points, and the points go down from there). The finished results reflect the teams with the most points at the top and then descending. Usually, the finished results are released Sunday, but are delayed to the week due to games occurring on the Labor Day weekend.

Oregon’s position on the poll is affected by the performance of all the other teams listed. That’s not too great to look at, because No. 1 ranked Georgia dominated vs. Clemson in Atlanta 34-3, No. 2 ranked Ohio State won vs. unranked Akron 52-6, and No. 4 ranked Texas clobbered Colorado State 52-0. If you’re a sports journalist comparing these three aforementioned games to Oregon’s nail-biter against an unranked FCS team, it doesn’t look good for the Ducks.

There’s also the lower-ranked teams that made statements in their opening games that deserve to be ranked higher. No. 19 ranked Miami took down the Florida Gators in The Swamp 41-17, No. 8 ranked Penn State sealed the win against West Virginia after a prolonged lightning delay at 34-12, and No. 7 ranked Notre Dame won a heated contest against No. 20 ranked Texas A&M in College Station with a score of 23-13.

Plus, we haven’t even gotten to the Sunday contest of LSU vs. the USC Trojans or Labor Day’s game with Florida State trying to make their comeback by playing Boston College at home.

Aug 31, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a pass warming up before the game against the Idaho Vandals at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports / Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports

Though the game wasn’t pretty, Oregon’s statistics here might aid them in falling any further on the AP Poll. Oregon’s defense, specifically their secondary, looked solid last night with Matayo Uiagaleilei putting up two sacks in particular. Tez Johnson, Terrance Ferguson, Jordan James, and Gabriel provide some real sparks of hope in an offense that seemed otherwise incohesive. This is also the first game, and experts may be unsure if Gabriel is simply playing with a finger injury, as he is currently rumored to have done so throughout the Idaho game.

It was an ugly win, but a win is still a win. The statistics are there to not guarantee a free fall like Florida State saw going from No. 10 to No. 16 after their loss in Ireland to Georgia Tech. Oregon has a lot of learning to do before going up against Mountain West Conference Championship favorite this year Boise State at home, but this win isn’t going to end the season like many on social media are surmising. It’s a wake up call to the team, no doubt, but not a death note.

We’d predict the Ducks don’t fall outside the top ten for the AP Poll, but will likely end up somewhere between the No. 5 spot and the No. 8 ranked spot (most likely No. 6). 

Hopefully the Ducks are able to correct their interior offensive line struggles, Gabriel can get more comfortable with long passing, and there can be a real cohesive groove with inspired offensive play calling to bring the Ducks back again into a force to be reckoned with. At this point, Duck fans can be thankful that a twelve-team College Football Playoff doesn’t immediately negate a poor performance here and there.

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