Do Miami Dolphins Wish They Drafted Oregon Ducks QB Justin Herbert Over Tua Tagovailoa?

Former Oregon Ducks football star Justin Herbert was picked sixth in the 2020 NFL draft, right behind Tua Tagovailoa to Miami. After four years, Dolphin fans are wondering if Herbert should have been Miami's choice as their starting quarterback.

Dec 11, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) and Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) shake hands after the game at SoFi Stadium. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps the most difficult decisions in any NFL Draft are those related to a quarterback—which one and in what round. The 2020 draft exemplified that very dilemma.

Former Oregon Ducks’ fan favorite and star Justin Herbert was drafted No. 6 by the Los Angeles Chargers, behind No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow (LSU/Bengals) and No. 5, Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama/Dolphins). Now, after four seasons and an unresolved contract issue between Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, fans are asking if Miami should have taken Herbert.

While there are plenty of statistics on which to objectively measure both Tagovailoa and Herbert, there are an equal number of subjective measuring sticks.

For example, Herbert moved into the Chargers’ starting lineup immediately while Tagovailoa did not start until Week 6. This could mean anything or nothing as each team had its own reasons for the decisions made. Herbert made a big splash in his first year in the NFL, as he was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Tagovailoa, on the other hand, split time with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick until being named as the full-time starter in 2022.

Advantage here to Herbert.

Sep 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) leaves the field following the game against the Miami Dolphins at SoFi Stadium. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

As to the numbers, the Miami signal-caller has two wins against the Chargers while Herbert has one victory against the Dolphins. Tagovailoa has a completion percentage of 66.9 (just ahead of Herbert’s 66.6). He has also thrown fewer interceptions than the Chargers quarterback (37 vs. 42) and leads in passer rating (97.1 vs. 95.7).

Tagovailoa has a slight advantage here.

Next, consider that Herbert has thrown for significantly more yards than Tagovailoa (17,223 vs 12,639), passing yards per game (277.8 vs. 238.5), touchdowns (114 vs. 81), rushing yards (911 vs. 381), rushing touchdowns (11 vs. 6), and rushing yards per attempt (4.1 vs. 2.8). Herbert clearly dominates in these areas.

Over their four years in the league, both have earned one Pro Bowl bid, and neither player has led their team to a playoff victory. No advantage here.

Sep 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The rest of the comparison is mostly subjective. Herbert is facing a season with new coach Jim Harbaugh, which is nothing new to the Chargers’ quarterback, having dealt with three head coaches and four offensive coordinators over his short career. While that could impact Herbert’s numbers, the relationship between player and coach seems to have started well.

Tagovailoa, on the other hand, is dealing with Miami management over a new contract which could be a distraction. Consider that, since 2004, the Dolphins have drafted eight first-round quarterbacks, and none have developed into the player the Dolphins hoped to find. Tagovailoa joined the roster in 2020 and has shown improvement each year. For example, in 2023, Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards, yards per attempt, and passer rating.

This debate, while interesting, isn’t going to settle the argument as to who was the better pick in 2020. Both players have the talent and experience to lead an NFL team, they just need strong personnel management and a top-notch supporting cast on the field. With that, both teams’ fan base can be incredibly happy with the two young gunslingers lining up behind the center.

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