How Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers Impacts Big Ten, College Football Playoff

The Oregon Ducks will be watching the Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes game closely as it will impact who the Ducks face in the Big Ten Championship Game. How will the game affect College Football Playoff seeding?

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day watches warm ups prior to the NCAA football game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. Ohio State won 31-7. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When it comes to the bye week for fans of the No. 1 Oregon Ducks, there are quite a few to pay attention to that impacts the future of this Oregon squad. On Saturday, the No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) head to Columbus, Ohio to take on the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1). This match-up is the site of ESPN’s College Gameday, and the site of a lasting impact on the Big Ten Conference.

Currently in the Big Ten standings, Oregon tops the conference due to their unbeaten streak and strength of opponents (beating Ohio State 32-31 previously in the season certainly helps). Indiana follows, with Ohio State and Penn State closely behind. With the rest of the conference teams at three losses or more, these are the only teams with records that encourage a Big Ten Championship berth.

Oregon was already announced as one of the two teams in the Big Ten Championship on Tuesday after a thorough evaluation of all tiebreakers by the conference. The title game will be held in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday, Dec. 7. In a statement from the Big Ten, the conference explained why there is no situation in which Oregon wouldn’t be in the definitive top two spots in the Big Ten rankings, therefore solidifying their place in the title game.

Nov 16, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Oregon Ducks linebacker Bryce Boettcher (28) celebrates with fans following the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

"Following a comprehensive evaluation of all possible scenarios over the final two weeks of regular season play across all 18 teams, the Big Ten Conference determined there are no conditions whereby the Ducks do not finish No. 1 or No. 2 [in the Big Ten Conference]," said the news release from the Big Ten about Oregon’s championship game selection.

In a separate article, the Big Ten also released a breakdown of 10 scenarios in which a tiebreaker would need to be implemented in case Penn State, Indiana, or Ohio State wind up with the same record or qualifications to enter the championship and play against Oregon.

For those hoping for a Ducks and Nittany Lions rematch of the 1995 Rose Bowl; it’s very unlikely to occur. In eight of the 10 scenarios for a Big Ten tiebreaker, either the Hoosiers or the Buckeyes are facing the Ducks. Due to the strength of schedule not being on Penn State’s side, there’s a very unlikely chance the Nittany Lions will be included in a title berth. Penn State also previously lost against Ohio State as well, which inherently makes the Buckeyes valued above the Nittany Lions.

If Indiana wins against Ohio State, the Hoosiers will face off against the Ducks regardless of how they do against Purdue the next week.

If Indiana loses to Ohio State, multiple scenarios come into play. First off, if Indiana loses to the Buckeyes but wins the next week against Purdue, they still have a chance to be the team to face Oregon. That’s because if Ohio State wins, and then loses against Michigan the next week, their 10-2 hypothetical regular season record would not stand against Indiana if it has a 11-1 hypothetical record. If Ohio State wins out the rest of their season, they are guaranteed a bid in the Big Ten Championship.

Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke gazes into the crowd after the Hoosiers beat Michigan on Nov. 9, 2024, in Bloomington, Indiana. / Rich Janzaruk / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to the Big Ten’s statement on tiebreakers for the conference rankings, here are the rules for how they evaluate two tied teams:

1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
6. The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

Indiana is having a strike-of-lightning season with their first 10-0 run in program history. The Hoosier’s meeting last year with the Buckeyes did not go in their favor, with Indiana losing 23-3 at home. Indiana has yet to face a ranked opponent this season, so their high flying offense is very much in question regarding the national conversation.

However, Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke is picking up serious numbers with 2,410 yards, 21 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions so far this season. In their 20-15 win against the Michigan Wolverines, the Hoosiers statistically did worse than Michigan, only boasting 40 more yards in the passing game than their opponent.

Aug 31, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) scrambles out of the pocket during the NCAA football game against the Akron Zips at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won 52-6. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As for the Buckeyes, they’re coming off a dominant 31- 7 win against Northwestern on the road. The Buckeyes tripled the Wildcats’ rushing yards with 173 on the ground game, their specialty this season with running back Quinshon Judkins gaining 76 yards off 15 carries during the contest.

The Ducks are currently on a bye week before facing the Washington Huskies on Nov. 30. If the Ducks are able to take down their former Pac-12 and now Big Ten rival in Autzen Stadium, they solidify the second undefeated regular season to ever occur in school history (the last being in 2010).

For Duck fans, there are positives and negatives to either Indiana or Ohio State making it to the Big Ten Championship. For the Buckeyes, Oregon beat them earlier and may know to expect when facing them again in Indianapolis. For Indiana, a team with a weaker strength of schedule, Oregon can take advantage of their reliance on the passing game with their dominant defense.

If Oregon wins the Big Ten Championship, they move on to the second round of the brand new 12-team College Football Playoffs with an automatic bye in the first round. If they lose, there is a potential to host a playoff game in Autzen, but without a bye week. For the Ducks, a Big Ten Championship win will certainly boost national championship hopes for an already impressive season.

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