College Football Playoff Rankings Preview, Prediction: Oregon Ducks Top Seed?

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee is releasing its first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, and the Oregon Ducks are anticipated to be at the top of the list, favored to win the Big Ten Conference championship.

Oct 26, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning visits with players before a game against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Autzen Stadium. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

EUGENE - The Oregon Ducks remain the No. 1 team in the AP Poll Top-25 for yet another college football week after defeating the Michigan Wolverines 38-17 in historic Michigan Stadium. The Ducks are now 9-0 for the first time since 2012, proving themselves worthy of a spot in the College Football Playoffs. 

The first College Football Playoff selection committee will released its first College Football Playoff rankings at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday (ESPN) and it's all eyes on which teams are in or out.

It was another thrilling week in college football filled with statement wins that shook up CFP predictions. The Ohio State Buckeyes defeated Penn State on the road in Happy Valley 20-13, putting the Buckeyes in position to make the Big Ten Championship game. South Carolina spoiled the Texas A&M Aggies’ chance at an unbeaten SEC season, beating Texas A&M 44-20. 

No. 8 Indiana, like the Ducks, remains undefeated after beating Michigan State 47-10. 

Nov 2, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Jordan James (20) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

It is also important to note when discussing the CFP that the ranking is not the seeding. With many games left in the season, the first iteration of CFP rankings will look far different from the actually playoff bracket.

Due to the CFP seeding rules, the rankings and seeding won’t always match up exactly. The top four seeds in the playoff are reserved for conference champions. This means that even if a team is ranked high in the polls but isn’t a conference champion, it won’t receive one of the top four seeds. 

The top four highest-ranked conference champions automatically qualify for the playoff, regardless of their national ranking. So, a team ranked lower in the national polls can still make the tournament if they’re a conference champion, while a higher-ranked team without a conference title might not. 

Nov 18, 2023; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes tight end Patrick Gurd (49) is tackled by Minnesota Golden Gophers defensive back Jack Henderson (20) during the second half of their game on Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023 at Ohio Stadium. / Clare Grant/The Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

The top four spots, which are reserved for conference champions, get a bye in the first round before playing in the quarterfinals in a bowl game. Seeds No. 5-8 will get to host the first round of the College Football Playoff, while teams ranked No. 9-12 play on the road. 

With that being said, here is how the committee might assess teams’ performances after Week 10: 

Top 4 Seeds - Conference Champions: 

• No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion) 

• No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion) 

• No. 3 Miami (ACC champion) 

• No. 4 BYU (Big 12 champion) 

Non-Champion Qualifiers/First Round Match-ups: 

• No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State 

• No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Miami (Fla.) 

• No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Alabama 

• No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Tennessee 

The Oregon Ducks, who are anticipated to take the No. 1 seed and win the Big Ten Conference Championship, will host Maryland Saturday, Nov. 3, at Autzen Stadium. If Oregon can remain consistent in their play and finish off the next few weeks of conference play strong, they should meet expectations and get a bye in the first round of the CFP Playoff. 

Nov 2, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) rolls out to pass in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Oregon might face Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game for a rematch of the Ducks’ 32-31 win over the Buckeyes at home in Autzen Stadium on Oct. 12. Even if the Ducks fall to the Buckeyes in the championship game, they will still have a good shot at taking home the program's first-ever national championship as they will then have the opportunity to host the first round of the CFP at home in Autzen, an environment that is hard for any opponent to play in. 

The Ducks are in position to make a strong push through the final stretch of the season, boasting arguably the easiest remaining schedule of CFP contenders. The task is simple for the Ducks to reach the CFP: stay consistent and beat the teams they’re expected to beat. 

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