Oregon Ducks Face Alabama: New College Football Playoff Prediction

Opening the season with two close victories over Boise State and Idaho, the Oregon Ducks have dropped six positions in the latest AP Poll. Ranked No. 9, where would Oregon be seeded in the first 12-team College Football Playoff bracket?

Oregon wide receiver Tez Johnson breaks away for a touchdown as the Oregon Ducks host the Boise State Broncos Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

With the 12-team playoff format beginning this year, the Oregon Ducks would still compete for a championship if they finished the season ranked No. 9, the team’s current ranking according to the week three AP Poll. Using the same poll, Oregon would face No. 4 Alabama in the College Football Playoff.

While the Ducks' early struggles have certainly been noticed across the country, Alabama has faced some criticism despite beating South Florida 42-16. The Crimson Tide led 14-13 entering the fourth quarter but scored 21 unanswered points to close out the game.

The five conference champions with the highest rankings will automatically make the 12-team playoff, and the top four will be seeded No. 1 through No. 4. The fifth conference champion is assumed to be from the Group of Five and will most likely fall somewhere between No. 5 through No. 12. As a result, only seven at-large spots remain for teams who failed to win their conference.

If the season ended after two weeks, the Ducks would be the No. 11 seed and face No. 6 Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Many more football games will decide the eventual playoff bracket, but the projected seeding currently includes six SEC teams in the top 12.

Oregon wide receiver Tez Johnson breaks away for a touchdown as the Oregon Ducks host the Boise State Broncos Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Under the week three AP Poll, No. 1 Georgia projects to win the SEC, No. 3 Ohio State projects to win the Big Ten, No. 10 Miami projects to win the ACC, and No. 12 Utah projects to win the Big 12.

Highly ranked teams like No. 2 Texas and No. 4 Alabama would miss out on the top four seeds if they do not win the SEC, and the teams behind them will be pushed down to make room as the other conference champions simultaneously jump up. In the 12-team format, No. 11 USC would be snubbed to make room for No. 25 Northern Illinois.

Of course, almost an entire season's worth of games need to be played before the final bracket will be set. The projection still gives an idea of the seeding format and important matchups throughout the year. Oregon and Ohio State are schedule to play, and the Buckeyes will also face Penn State later this season.

Missouri is currently ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll and will host No. 24 Boston College on Saturday, Sept. 14. Safe to say, plenty of football remains until the inaugural 12-team playoff.

Using the AP Top 25 to set a projected 12-team bracket, half of the College Football Playoff field would be SEC teams, including two-thirds of the top nine seeds.

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— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) September 9, 2024

Entering the season ranked as high as No. 3, Oregon currently sits at No. 9 before their matchup on the road with Oregon State. The Ducks have fallen in the AP Poll after beating Idaho and Boise State by a combined 13 points to start the season.

After the Ducks beat Boise State 37-34 in week two, quarterback Dillon Gabriel expressed the need to improve.

"There's going to be a lot of self-reflection,” said Gabriel. “Going to the doctor as coach says, and cleaning shit up. We have to. There's only so much you can get away with and you have to not put yourself in position."

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