Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction: Upset Alert?

The Oregon Ducks and the Ohio State Buckeyes face off Saturday in a highly anticipated top-3 matchup. Is Ohio State too loaded with talent to lose, or can the Ducks pull off the slight upset in front of the rowdy Autzen Stadium fans?

Oregon running back CJ Verdell runs past Ohio State safety Bryson Shaw (17) and cornerback Cameron Brown (26) for a 77-yard touchdown on Saturday. Verdell scored two touchdowns. Oregon Ducks At Ohio State Buckeyes Football / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch via Imagn Content Services, LLC

The Oregon Ducks welcome the Ohio State Buckeyes to Eugene on Saturday night. Kickoff is set for 4:30 pm PST on NBC.

When the No.2 ranked Buckeyes and No. 3 ranked Ducks take the field, it will make for the first-ever top-5 matchup in the history of Autzen Stadium. These two have faced off 10 times, with Ohio State leading the series 9-1. Oregon won the last meeting in 2021 at Ohio State, 35-28.

Ohio State has cruised in their opening five games in 2024. They have outscored opponents 234-30 in the 5-0 start. They are coming off a 35-7 win over Iowa.

The Ducks are 5-0 and have started to hit their groove. They beat Michigan State 31-10 in their last outing.

Oregon vs. Ohio State Odds

Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Quinn Schulte tackles Ohio State Buckeyes running back Quinshon Judkins. / Adam Cairns / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Ducks enter Saturday’s showdown as slight home underdogs. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Ohio State is favored by 3 points. The over/under is set at 54 points. 

It’s a rare sighting to see the Oregon Ducks as an underdog at home. The last time the Ducks were not favored in a home game was in 2018 when they hosted the Washington Huskies. In that game, the Huskies were 3-point favorites, per Vegas Insider. Oregon won in overtime 30-27.

Speaking of teams that are favored in games more often than not, there’s the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State came into this season as the favorite to win the Big Ten championship at +150 and had the second-best odds to win the national championship at +325 per ESPN Bet. 

Oregon vs. Ohio State Preview

Oregon Ducks defensive end Jordan Burch celebrates a sack as the Ducks host the Spartans Friday, Oct. 4, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Ducks a 35.9 percent chance to win against Ohio State.

This is very low considering the spread in the game is just 3 points and the game is being played in Autzen Stadium. What gives Ohio State the edge in so many’s eyes?

The Ohio State defense has made the case for being the best in the country. They have only given up 6 points per game in their 5-0 start. This Buckeyes defense is stacked from the defensive line to their secondary. Oregon will have their hands full of edge rushers, such as JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Additionally, the Buckeyes secondary has been like velcro. Cornerback Denzel Burke leads the Buckeyes in interceptions with 2. All three of these guys are projected as early-round NFL draft picks.

As for the Ohio State offense, contrary to years past, they rely on the run game. The running-back duo of Quinshon Judkins and Treveyon Henderson has combined for 805 yards on the ground and nine rushing touchdowns. How can the Ducks counter this Buckeye attack and pull off the win?

Ohio State may have a slight edge in terms of the talent on the field, but the Ducks can still go toe to toe at most positions. The position where Oregon appears to have a clear edge is at quarterback. Now to be fair to Buckeyes’ quarterback Will Howard, he may not have lit it up this year because Ohio State has been winning every game from the jump, and there hasn’t been a need to become pass-happy.

Oct 5, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) hands the ball off to Ohio State Buckeyes running back Quinshon Judkins (1) against Iowa Hawkeyes in the third quarter during the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium. / Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ducks’ quarterback Dillon Gabriel has had a solid season and has a track record of being a good college quarterback. However, he has been shaky in the red zone for the past two weeks with 3 interceptions. He needs to clean that up for the Ducks to win. It will be interesting to see how he deals with this Buckeye defense since it's likely the best unit he has faced in his 6-year collegiate career.

Oregon vs. Ohio State Score Prediction

The Oregon Ducks have lost one game at the Autzen Stadium in the past five seasons, but they haven’t played a team the caliber of Ohio State. Oregon needs to lean on the run game with Jordan James. Ohio State is going to want to do the same with their running back duo and that could wear down Oregons’ defense. Ball control will be a huge key. 

Each defense will make the other quarterback beat them and not just get gashed in the run game. In a close, low-scoring game, I have the Ducks covering the 3-points and winning outright.

Oregon 24, Ohio State 23. 

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