Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan State Prediction: First Big Ten Win in Autzen Stadium?

The No. 6 Oregon Ducks play the Michigan State Spartans on Friday, Oct. 4 in the first Big Ten Conference game held in Autzen Stadium. Can the Ducks improve to 5-0 on the season, or will the Spartans play spoiler?

Dec 31, 2018; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks linebacker Justin Hollins (11) forces a fumble by Michigan State Spartans quarterback Brian Lewerke (14) during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images / Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks will host the Michigan State Spartans in the first-ever Big Ten Conference game at Autzen Stadium on Friday, Oct. 4. Kickoff is set for 6 p.m. PT on FOX.

Michigan State comes into the game with a record of 3-2. The Spartans got beat at home 38-7 by Ohio State a week ago.

The Ducks off to a 4-0 start, taking down UCLA 34-13 in their last outing. 

Oregon vs. Michigan State Odds

As expected, the Ducks are massive home favorites vs. the visiting Spartans. Oregon is a 23.5-point favorite over Michigan State per DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 52.5 points.

The 2024 Oregon Ducks are no strangers to being big favorites in games. In each of the Ducks’ first four games, they were favored by at least 14 points. Oregon had to sweat out their first two games against Idaho and Boise State, only winning by a combined 13 points.

Following their 37-34 win over Boise State, the Ducks blew out Oregon State 49-14 and then UCLA 34-13. They appear to have hit their stride, and Oregon is starting to look more like the preseason No. 3 ranking they had when the season kicked off.

Michigan State, on the other hand, is in a transition year. The Spartans are led by Jonathan Smith in his first year with the program. Smith was at Oregon State from 2018-2023 before taking the job in East Lansing. That gives some extra juice to this matchup.

Michigan State was unranked coming into the season, and their preseason over/under win total was set at 5.5 per DraftKings Sportsbook. The Spartans are coming off a disappointing 4-8 season in 2023, so even a bowl appearance would be a step in the right direction.

Oregon vs. Michigan State Prediction

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning leads practice as the Oregon Ducks hit the practice field ahead of Michigan State Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024 at the Hatfield-Dowlin Complex in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Ducks a 92 percent chance to win over the Spartans on Friday night.

It is a very rare occasion when the Oregon Ducks lose in Autzen Stadium. Oregon has been virtually unbeatable at home over the past 5 seasons. They have lost only one home game in that time frame. 

The biggest weakness Oregon had through the opening two games of the season was the offensive line. However, starting in the Oregon State game, that group started to come together. Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel has actually had time to throw the ball and the Oregon offense has flourished. 

It’s the Ducks' first home game with students all on campus so the atmosphere is going to be rocking. I see a Ducks rout coming where the game is over by the time “Shout” plays.

Oregon wins big and covers. Ducks 45, Spartans 17.

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