Oregon Football: Best, Worst Case Scenarios This Fall

The Oregon Ducks lead USC, UCLA, and Washington into the uncharted waters of the Big Ten Conference for the 2024 season. While each has a rich football background, they will take different paths on the road to championships. The underlying question is which team, if any, can successfully navigate their way to a championship and entry into the playoffs.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks the field during the Oregon Ducks’ Spring Game Saturday, April 27. 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA

Oregon Football debuts in the Big Ten Conference this fall with eyes set on a national title.

With the season just around the corner, CBS Sports detailed the best and worst scenarios for each team, starting with the Oregon Ducks. Many are already touting coach Dan Lanning’s team as a strong contender to win it all. As such, the best outcome is a national championship, something super-fan Phil Knight has coveted for some time. The facts also support this outcome.

Coach Lanning is entering his third year with the Ducks, and the return of quality coordinators, Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi, gives Oregon the foundation to continue the momentum generated by last year’s 12-2 season. Bo Nix is gone (12th overall pick by the Denver Broncos), but Lanning signed former UCF and Oklahoma star Dillon Gabriel out of the transfer portal.

The team’s receiver room is stacked, which should help the Ducks repeat last year’s No. 2 ranking in total offense. The running game also looks strong with Jordan James the likely starter in 2024. The Ducks will be tested at home against Ohio State and at Michigan, otherwise the schedule is such that Oregon should remain in contention all season long.

On the flip side, should Oregon falter in games against Ohio State, at Michigan, and at Wisconsin, the Ducks would be hard pressed to build a case for inclusion in the playoffs. This outcome seems highly unlikely given Oregon’s history.

After that, the finish to the regular season will depend on matchups and health. If all goes as planned, a national title is absolutely within reach for a team that ranked No. 3 in CBSSports' Dennis Dodd's post-spring Top 25.

The 2024 UCLA Bruins may have the toughest road among the four Big Ten newcomers in putting together a winning season, let alone contending for a championship. UCLA welcomes a new coach in DeShaun Foster who starts with a very tough schedule. The expectations are rather low as some see a six-win season as the best outcome for the Bruins’ first year in the Big Ten.

Feb 13, 2024; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins athletic director Martin Jarmond, right, with new head football coach DeShaun Foster during a press conference at Pauley Pavilion. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

UCLA starts the season with a roster many believe is not deep or talented enough to handle the physicality of some of the nation's top teams. The Bruins’ schedule includes a three-week stretch at LSU, vs. Oregon and at Penn State—one of the toughest in the country. All told, the absolute worst-case scenario could find UCLA with a 2-8 record before the season closes with home contests against USC and Fresno State.

USC’s best case scenario has them beating at least two of the following four teams: LSU, Michigan, Penn State and Notre Dame. If so, it is possible the Trojans could grab one of the final spots in the 12-team CFP. However, they need to shore up a defense that was a weak point in 2023.

Nov 18, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) scrambles during the second quarter against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. / Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

USC enters the season with the very real possibility of not making a bowl game. The loss of star quarterback, Caleb Williams, (NFL/Chicago Bears) leaves a huge gap in their offense. Early losses to LSU and Michigan could put the Trojans' championship thoughts on hold.

The Washington Huskies start with a favorable schedule as they welcome many new faces to the roster. The best outcome for the Huskies could be a 9-3 finish for new coach Jedd Fisch.

Washington could be 5-0 entering an Oct. 5 national title rematch with Michigan. Given that both teams have significant changes, and the Huskies are hosting the game, it is possible Washington could exact revenge and start 6-0. However, the back half of the schedule features road games against Iowa, Penn State, and Oregon.

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) moves in the pocket against the Michigan Wolverines during the fourth quarter in the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The worst case for Washington would be faltering through the season and missing a bowl game. While Mississippi State transfer quarterback Will Rogers (replacing Michael Penix) should give the offense a high floor, he unfortunately will be playing behind an offensive line that is untested and sorely lacking in high-end talent and depth.

All of the speculation is good ammunition for healthy debates on how each team may fare. Yet, the true test will be when the teams take the field and what they do with the opportunities put in front of them. For Ducks’ fans, the upside looks bright and expectations run high for a run at their first national championship.

---

Stay up to date on all things Oregon Ducks by visiting Oregon Ducks on SI daily and following Oregon Ducks on SI on Facebook and X.